Brentford vs Sunderland: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 3Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Gtech Community Stadium, Brentford, Middlesex
The Footlab model makes Brentford the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Sunderland. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Brentford vs Sunderland?
Brentford starts as the favourite with a 102-point Elo edge (2,158 vs 2,056).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Brentford have 4 wins, 8 draws and 3 defeats; Sunderland have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt(home) | 7-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Rennes(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 24, 2026 | Liverpool(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| May 17, 2026 | Crystal Palace(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| May 9, 2026 | Manchester City(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rennes(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Lens(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Wrexham(away) | 1-0 | Premier League - Summer Series |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Leeds(home) | 0-1 | Premier League - Summer Series |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Liverpool(away) | 2-4 | Premier League - Summer Series |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Brentford win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Sunderland win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2026 | Brentford 3-0 Sunderland | Premier League |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Sunderland 2-1 Brentford | Premier League |
| Feb 17, 2018 | Sunderland 0-2 Brentford | Championship |
| Oct 21, 2017 | Brentford 3-3 Sunderland | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Brentford vs Sunderland on Jan 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Brentford score 1.9 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Sunderland score 1.6 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford | 1.9 | 1.4 | 5 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Sunderland | 1.6 | 1.4 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Brentford sit 9th in Premier League (53 points from 38 matches) and Sunderland sit 7th (54 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Sunderland | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 42 | 48 | 54 |
| 9 | Brentford | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 55 | 52 | 53 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Brentford vs Sunderland?
- The Footlab model makes Brentford the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Sunderland.
- Where and when is Brentford vs Sunderland played?
- Brentford vs Sunderland is played on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Gtech Community Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.