Arsenal vs Sunderland: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 30Kick-off on March 20, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Emirates Stadium, London
The Footlab model makes Arsenal the favourite at 63%, against 22% for a draw and 15% for Sunderland. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arsenal vs Sunderland?
Arsenal is a heavy favourite: 2,377 Elo points against 2,058 — a 319-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arsenal have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Sunderland have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Coventry(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Manchester City(home) | 3-0 | Community Shield |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Como(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund(home) | 2-3 | Emirates Cup |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Real Betis(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ipswich(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rennes(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Lens(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Wrexham(away) | 1-0 | Premier League - Summer Series |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Leeds(home) | 0-1 | Premier League - Summer Series |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Arsenal win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Sunderland win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2026 | Arsenal 3-0 Sunderland | Premier League |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Sunderland 2-2 Arsenal | Premier League |
| Dec 21, 2021 | Arsenal 5-1 Sunderland | League Cup |
| May 16, 2017 | Arsenal 2-0 Sunderland | Premier League |
| Oct 29, 2016 | Sunderland 1-4 Arsenal | Premier League |
| Apr 24, 2016 | Sunderland 0-0 Arsenal | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Arsenal score 1.7 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Sunderland score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 1.7 | 0.9 | 7 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Sunderland | 1.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arsenal sit 2nd in Premier League (3 points from 1 matches) and Sunderland sit 13th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 | Sunderland | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arsenal vs Sunderland?
- The Footlab model makes Arsenal the favourite at 63%, against 22% for a draw and 15% for Sunderland.
- Where and when is Arsenal vs Sunderland played?
- Arsenal vs Sunderland is played on March 20, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Emirates Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.