Manchester City vs Manchester United: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 30Kick-off on March 20, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Etihad Stadium, Manchester
The Footlab model makes Manchester City the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Manchester United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Manchester City vs Manchester United?
Manchester City starts as the favourite with a 149-point Elo edge (2,405 vs 2,256).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Manchester City have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Manchester United have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Bournemouth(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Arsenal(away) | 0-3 | Community Shield |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | K-League Stars(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Inter(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Hull City(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | AC Milan(home) | 2-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Leeds(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Manchester City win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Manchester United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | Manchester United 2-0 Manchester City | Premier League |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Manchester City 3-0 Manchester United | Premier League |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Manchester United 0-0 Manchester City | Premier League |
| Dec 15, 2024 | Manchester City 1-2 Manchester United | Premier League |
| Aug 10, 2024 | Manchester City 1-1 Manchester United | Community Shield |
| May 25, 2024 | Manchester City 1-2 Manchester United | FA Cup |
Last archived meeting: Manchester United vs Manchester City on Jan 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Manchester City score 1.9 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Manchester United score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 1.9 | 1.0 | 5 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Manchester United | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Manchester City sit 7th in Premier League (3 points from 1 matches) and Manchester United sit 16th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Manchester City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | Manchester United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Manchester City vs Manchester United?
- The Footlab model makes Manchester City the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Manchester United.
- Where and when is Manchester City vs Manchester United played?
- Manchester City vs Manchester United is played on March 20, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Etihad Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.