Sunderland vs Arsenal: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 4Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stadium of Light, Sunderland
The Footlab model makes Arsenal the favourite at 55%, against 26% for a draw and 20% for Sunderland. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sunderland vs Arsenal?
Arsenal is a heavy favourite: 2,363 Elo points against 2,056 — a 307-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sunderland have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Arsenal have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rennes(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Lens(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Wrexham(away) | 1-0 | Premier League - Summer Series |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Leeds(home) | 0-1 | Premier League - Summer Series |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Liverpool(away) | 2-4 | Premier League - Summer Series |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Manchester City(home) | 3-0 | Community Shield |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Como(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund(home) | 2-3 | Emirates Cup |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Real Betis(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Girona(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Sunderland win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Arsenal win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2026 | Arsenal 3-0 Sunderland | Premier League |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Sunderland 2-2 Arsenal | Premier League |
| Dec 21, 2021 | Arsenal 5-1 Sunderland | League Cup |
| May 16, 2017 | Arsenal 2-0 Sunderland | Premier League |
| Oct 29, 2016 | Sunderland 1-4 Arsenal | Premier League |
| Apr 24, 2016 | Sunderland 0-0 Arsenal | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Sunderland score 1.6 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Arsenal score 1.5 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | 1.6 | 1.4 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Arsenal | 1.5 | 0.9 | 7 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sunderland sit 7th in Premier League (54 points from 38 matches) and Arsenal sit 1st (85 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 71 | 27 | 85 |
| 7 | Sunderland | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 42 | 48 | 54 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sunderland vs Arsenal?
- The Footlab model makes Arsenal the favourite at 55%, against 26% for a draw and 20% for Sunderland.
- Where and when is Sunderland vs Arsenal played?
- Sunderland vs Arsenal is played on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stadium of Light, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.