Hull City vs Chelsea: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 30Kick-off on March 20, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)The MKM Stadium, Hull
The Footlab model makes Chelsea the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Hull City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Hull City vs Chelsea?
Chelsea starts as the favourite with a 232-point Elo edge (2,175 vs 1,943).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hull City have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Chelsea have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Stoke City(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Manchester United(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Nice(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Kasımpaşa(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Fulham(away) | 3-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Real Sociedad(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Johor Darul Takzim FC(away) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | AC Milan(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Juventus(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Hull City win(s), 0 draw(s), 6 Chelsea win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2026 | Hull City 0-4 Chelsea | FA Cup |
| Jan 25, 2020 | Hull City 1-2 Chelsea | FA Cup |
| Feb 16, 2018 | Chelsea 4-0 Hull City | FA Cup |
| Jan 22, 2017 | Chelsea 2-0 Hull City | Premier League |
| Oct 1, 2016 | Hull City 0-2 Chelsea | Premier League |
| Mar 22, 2015 | Hull City 2-3 Chelsea | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Hull City score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Chelsea score 1.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hull City | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Chelsea | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Hull City sit 5th in Premier League (3 points from 1 matches) and Chelsea sit 6th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Hull City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Hull City vs Chelsea?
- The Footlab model makes Chelsea the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Hull City.
- Where and when is Hull City vs Chelsea played?
- Hull City vs Chelsea is played on March 20, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at The MKM Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.