Arys vs Akademiya Ontustik: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 25Kick-off on October 15, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Turkistan Arena, Turkistan
The Footlab model makes Akademiya Ontustik the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 23% for Arys. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arys vs Akademiya Ontustik?
Akademiya Ontustik starts as the favourite with a 169-point Elo edge (1,343 vs 1,173).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arys have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Akademiya Ontustik have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Taraz(home) | 1-1 | 1. Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Khan Tengri(away) | 0-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Tobol 2(home) | 3-0 | 1. Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Astana II(away) | 0-2 | 1. Division |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Shakhter Karagandy(away) | 1-4 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Ekibastuz(home) | 3-2 | 1. Division |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Sport Academy Kairat(away) | 0-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Khan Tengri(home) | 3-1 | 1. Division |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Taraz(away) | 1-2 | 1. Division |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Astana II(home) | 2-1 | 1. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Arys win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Akademiya Ontustik win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 9, 2026 | Akademiya Ontustik 1-2 Arys | 1. Division |
| Aug 3, 2023 | Arys 3-3 Akademiya Ontustik | 1. Division |
| Apr 27, 2023 | Akademiya Ontustik 2-5 Arys | 1. Division |
| Mar 26, 2019 | Akademiya Ontustik 6-0 Arys | Cup |
Last archived meeting: Akademiya Ontustik vs Arys on Jul 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Arys score 1.1 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Akademiya Ontustik score 1.6 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arys | 1.1 | 2.0 | 2 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Akademiya Ontustik | 1.6 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arys sit 12th in 1. Division (15 points from 19 matches) and Akademiya Ontustik sit 4th (33 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Akademiya Ontustik | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 31 | 25 | 33 |
| 12 | Arys | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 20 | 39 | 15 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arys vs Akademiya Ontustik?
- The Footlab model makes Akademiya Ontustik the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 23% for Arys.
- Where and when is Arys vs Akademiya Ontustik played?
- Arys vs Akademiya Ontustik is played on October 15, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Turkistan Arena, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.