Turan Turkistan vs Shakhter Karagandy: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 25Kick-off on October 15, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Stadion Qajimuqan Muñaytpasov, Shymkent
The Footlab model makes Shakhter Karagandy the favourite at 62%, against 21% for a draw and 16% for Turan Turkistan. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Turan Turkistan vs Shakhter Karagandy?
Shakhter Karagandy starts as the favourite with a 146-point Elo edge (1,534 vs 1,389).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Turan Turkistan have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Shakhter Karagandy have 14, 0 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Sport Academy Kairat(home) | 0-4 | 1. Division |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Taraz(away) | 0-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Astana II(home) | 5-1 | 1. Division |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Khan Tengri(away) | 1-0 | 1. Division |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Tobol 2(home) | 2-1 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Astana II(home) | 4-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Aktobe Jas(away) | 6-1 | 1. Division |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Kaspij Aktau 2(home) | 1-0 | 1. Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Tobol 2(away) | 2-0 | 1. Division |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Arys(home) | 4-1 | 1. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Turan Turkistan win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Shakhter Karagandy win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 10, 2026 | Shakhter Karagandy 1-0 Turan Turkistan | 1. Division |
| Sep 14, 2024 | Turan Turkistan 2-1 Shakhter Karagandy | Premier League |
| Mar 30, 2024 | Shakhter Karagandy 0-2 Turan Turkistan | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Shakhter Karagandy vs Turan Turkistan on Jul 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Turan Turkistan score 2.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Shakhter Karagandy score 2.8 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turan Turkistan | 2.1 | 0.9 | 8 | 3/15 | 10/15 |
| Shakhter Karagandy | 2.8 | 0.5 | 11 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Turan Turkistan sit 3rd in 1. Division (38 points from 19 matches) and Shakhter Karagandy sit 1st (52 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhter Karagandy | 19 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 55 | 7 | 52 |
| 3 | Turan Turkistan | 19 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 37 | 17 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Turan Turkistan vs Shakhter Karagandy?
- The Footlab model makes Shakhter Karagandy the favourite at 62%, against 21% for a draw and 16% for Turan Turkistan.
- Where and when is Turan Turkistan vs Shakhter Karagandy played?
- Turan Turkistan vs Shakhter Karagandy is played on October 15, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Stadion Qajimuqan Muñaytpasov, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.