Tobol 2 vs Jaiyq: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 25Kick-off on October 15, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Jaiyq the favourite at 51%, against 23% for a draw and 26% for Tobol 2. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tobol 2 vs Jaiyq?
A very open match: only 92 Elo points separate Tobol 2 (1,235) and Jaiyq (1,327).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tobol 2 have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; Jaiyq have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Khan Tengri(home) | 3-4 | 1. Division |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Astana II(away) | 4-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Arys(away) | 0-3 | 1. Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Shakhter Karagandy(home) | 0-2 | 1. Division |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Turan Turkistan(away) | 1-2 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Kaspij Aktau 2(home) | 0-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ekibastuz(away) | 1-3 | 1. Division |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Taraz(home) | 2-0 | 1. Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Sport Academy Kairat(away) | 2-2 | 1. Division |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Khan Tengri(home) | 2-0 | 1. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Tobol 2 win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Jaiyq win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 9, 2026 | Jaiyq 1-0 Tobol 2 | 1. Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Tobol 2 score 1.9 and concede 2.8 goals per match over their last 15; Jaiyq score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tobol 2 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 1 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
| Jaiyq | 1.1 | 1.1 | 6 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tobol 2 sit 14th in 1. Division (10 points from 19 matches) and Jaiyq sit 5th (27 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Jaiyq | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 23 | 27 |
| 14 | Tobol 2 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 31 | 52 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tobol 2 vs Jaiyq?
- The Footlab model makes Jaiyq the favourite at 51%, against 23% for a draw and 26% for Tobol 2.
- Where and when is Tobol 2 vs Jaiyq played?
- Tobol 2 vs Jaiyq is played on October 15, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC), in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.