ASA Aarhus vs Holbæk B&I: prediction and stats
3. DivisionRegular Season - 16Kick-off on November 14, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)ASA grounds (boldbaner), Århus
The Footlab model makes Holbæk B&I the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for ASA Aarhus. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win ASA Aarhus vs Holbæk B&I?
Holbæk B&I starts as the favourite with a 216-point Elo edge (1,848 vs 1,632).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, ASA Aarhus have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Holbæk B&I have 13, 1 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Frem(away) | 1-3 | 3. Division |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Randers FC(home) | 0-4 | DBU Pokalen |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Vanløse(home) | 2-1 | 3. Division |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Ishøj(away) | 1-0 | 3. Division |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Viby(away) | 0-0 | DBU Pokalen |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Brønshøj(away) | 4-1 | 3. Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sundby(home) | 2-1 | 3. Division |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Holstebro(away) | 2-2 | 3. Division |
| Aug 4, 2026 | AB Copenhagen(home) | 1-2 | DBU Pokalen |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Frem(home) | 2-1 | 3. Division |
How many goals should we expect?
ASA Aarhus score 1.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Holbæk B&I score 2.6 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASA Aarhus | 1.9 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Holbæk B&I | 2.6 | 0.9 | 4 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
ASA Aarhus sit 5th in 3. Division (7 points from 3 matches) and Holbæk B&I sit 1st (10 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holbæk B&I | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 10 |
| 5 | ASA Aarhus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for ASA Aarhus vs Holbæk B&I?
- The Footlab model makes Holbæk B&I the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for ASA Aarhus.
- Where and when is ASA Aarhus vs Holbæk B&I played?
- ASA Aarhus vs Holbæk B&I is played on November 14, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at ASA grounds (boldbaner), in the 3. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.