ASA Aarhus vs Næsby: prediction and stats
3. DivisionRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)ASA grounds (boldbaner), Århus
The Footlab model makes Næsby the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for ASA Aarhus. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win ASA Aarhus vs Næsby?
Næsby starts as the favourite with a 126-point Elo edge (1,758 vs 1,632).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, ASA Aarhus have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Næsby have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Frem(away) | 1-3 | 3. Division |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Randers FC(home) | 0-4 | DBU Pokalen |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Vanløse(home) | 2-1 | 3. Division |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Ishøj(away) | 1-0 | 3. Division |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Viby(away) | 0-0 | DBU Pokalen |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ishøj(away) | 5-1 | 3. Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Brønshøj(home) | 0-0 | 3. Division |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Vanløse(away) | 0-3 | 3. Division |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Kolding B(away) | 3-0 | DBU Pokalen |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sundby(home) | 2-1 | 3. Division |
How many goals should we expect?
ASA Aarhus score 1.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Næsby score 2.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASA Aarhus | 1.9 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Næsby | 2.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
ASA Aarhus sit 5th in 3. Division (7 points from 3 matches) and Næsby sit 3rd (7 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Næsby | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 7 |
| 5 | ASA Aarhus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for ASA Aarhus vs Næsby?
- The Footlab model makes Næsby the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for ASA Aarhus.
- Where and when is ASA Aarhus vs Næsby played?
- ASA Aarhus vs Næsby is played on September 13, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at ASA grounds (boldbaner), in the 3. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.