Aston Villa vs Brighton: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 31Kick-off on April 10, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Villa Park, Birmingham
The Footlab AI model makes Brighton the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Aston Villa. The most likely score is 1-1. If Brighton wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,630 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aston Villa vs Brighton?
A very open match: only 27 Elo points separate Aston Villa (2,284) and Brighton (2,311).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Aston Villa vs Brighton
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Aston Villa
4-2-3-1- 11N. Jackson
- 8B. Kamara
- 10E. Buendía
- 44J. Manzambi
- 35João Gomes
- 7J. McGinn
- 3V. Lindelöf
- 5T. Mings
- 2M. Cash
- 29A. Wan-Bissaka
- 1Z. Suzuki
Brighton
4-2-3-1- 19C. Kostoulas
- 13P. Groß
- 25D. Gómez
- 29M. De Cuyper
- 26Y. Ayari
- 14José María Andrés Baixauli
- 21O. Boscagli
- 44L. Vušković
- 24F. Kadıoğlu
- 4P. Struijk
- 1B. Verbruggen
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 01:22 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aston Villa have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Brighton have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Newcastle(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Fenerbahçe(home) | 6-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Brentford(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Sevilla(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Tottenham(away) | 3-2 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Kauno Žalgiris(home) | 4-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Sunderland(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Arsenal(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Manchester United(away) | 3-2 | League Cup |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Coventry(away) | 5-0 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Aston Villa wins, 1 draw, 2 Brighton wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Brighton 4-0 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Aston Villa 1-0 Brighton | Premier League |
| Dec 3, 2025 | Brighton 3-4 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Apr 2, 2025 | Brighton 0-3 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Dec 30, 2024 | Aston Villa 2-2 Brighton | Premier League |
| May 5, 2024 | Brighton 1-0 Aston Villa | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Brighton vs Aston Villa on Aug 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aston Villa score 1.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Brighton score 2.5 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 1.9 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Brighton | 2.5 | 0.9 | 9 | 4/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aston Villa sit 12th in Premier League (8 points from 7 matches) and Brighton sit 3rd (13 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 5 | 13 |
| 12 | Aston Villa | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 8 |
A question about Aston Villa vs Brighton?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aston Villa vs Brighton?
- The Footlab AI model makes Brighton the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Aston Villa.
- Where and when is Aston Villa vs Brighton played?
- Aston Villa vs Brighton is played on April 10, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Villa Park, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.