Brighton vs Chelsea: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 32Kick-off on April 17, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)The American Express Community Stadium, Falmer, East Sussex
The Footlab AI model makes Brighton the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Chelsea. The most likely score is 1-1. If Brighton wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,846 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Brighton vs Chelsea?
On Elo ratings, Brighton has 2,311 points and Chelsea 2,247.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Brighton vs Chelsea
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Brighton
4-2-3-1- 19C. Kostoulas
- 13P. Groß
- 29M. De Cuyper
- 25D. Gómez
- 26Y. Ayari
- 14José María Andrés Baixauli
- 21O. Boscagli
- 44L. Vušković
- 24F. Kadıoğlu
- 5L. Dunk
- 1B. Verbruggen
Chelsea
4-2-3-1- 9João Pedro
- 17M. Rogers
- 10C. Palmer
- 7Pedro Neto
- 14J. Henderson
- 25M. Caicedo
- 6L. Colwill
- 5M. Lacroix
- 34Joshua Kofi Acheampong
- 21J. Hato
- 1E. Martínez
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 10:29 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Brighton have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Chelsea have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Crystal Palace(home) | 5-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Kauno Žalgiris(home) | 4-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Sunderland(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Arsenal(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Manchester United(away) | 3-2 | League Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Everton(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Bournemouth(home) | 5-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Brentford(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Hull City(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Leeds(home) | 6-3 | League Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Brighton wins, 0 draws, 2 Chelsea wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 2026 | Chelsea 4-3 Brighton | Premier League |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Brighton 3-0 Chelsea | Premier League |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Chelsea 1-3 Brighton | Premier League |
| Feb 14, 2025 | Brighton 3-0 Chelsea | Premier League |
| Feb 8, 2025 | Brighton 2-1 Chelsea | FA Cup |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Chelsea 4-2 Brighton | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Brighton score 2.8 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Chelsea score 2.7 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | 2.8 | 0.9 | 10 | 4/15 | 11/15 |
| Chelsea | 2.7 | 1.8 | 3 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Brighton sit 3rd in Premier League (16 points from 7 matches) and Chelsea sit 4th (13 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Brighton | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 5 | 16 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 13 | 13 |
A question about Brighton vs Chelsea?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Brighton vs Chelsea?
- The Footlab AI model makes Brighton the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Chelsea.
- Where and when is Brighton vs Chelsea played?
- Brighton vs Chelsea is played on April 17, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at The American Express Community Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.