Brighton vs Aston Villa: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 1Kick-off on August 23, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)The American Express Community Stadium, Falmer, East Sussex
The Footlab model makes Brighton the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Aston Villa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Brighton vs Aston Villa?
A very open match: only 37 Elo points separate Brighton (2,172) and Aston Villa (2,209).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Brighton have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Aston Villa have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Tromso(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bologna(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | AS Roma(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Strasbourg(home) | 4-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 24, 2026 | Manchester United(home) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Borussia Mönchengladbach(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Super Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Bayern München(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | BG Pathum United(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Real Sociedad(home) | 2-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Brighton win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Aston Villa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2026 | Aston Villa 1-0 Brighton | Premier League |
| Dec 3, 2025 | Brighton 3-4 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Apr 2, 2025 | Brighton 0-3 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Dec 30, 2024 | Aston Villa 2-2 Brighton | Premier League |
| May 5, 2024 | Brighton 1-0 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Sep 30, 2023 | Aston Villa 6-1 Brighton | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Aston Villa vs Brighton on Feb 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Brighton score 1.6 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Aston Villa score 2.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | 1.6 | 1.0 | 7 | 5/15 | 9/15 |
| Aston Villa | 2.0 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Brighton sit 8th in Premier League (53 points from 38 matches) and Aston Villa sit 4th (65 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Aston Villa | 38 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 56 | 49 | 65 |
| 8 | Brighton | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 52 | 46 | 53 |
Who is out?
11 reported absence(s) for this match.
- C. BalebaBrightonDoubtful(Ankle Injury)
- E. FergusonBrightonOut(Ankle Injury)
- K. MitomaBrightonDoubtful(Hamstring Injury)
- S. TzimasBrightonDoubtful(Knee Injury)
- Y. MintehBrightonOut(Injury)
- A. OnanaAston VillaOut(Knee Injury)
- Brian MadjoAston VillaOut(Injury)
- E. MartínezAston VillaDoubtful(Finger Injury)
- J. ManzambiAston VillaDoubtful(Knee Injury)
- João GomesAston VillaOut(Calf Injury)
- L. BaileyAston VillaDoubtful(Muscle Injury)
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Brighton vs Aston Villa?
- The Footlab model makes Brighton the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Aston Villa.
- Where and when is Brighton vs Aston Villa played?
- Brighton vs Aston Villa is played on August 23, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at The American Express Community Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.