Arsenal vs Aston Villa: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 32Kick-off on April 17, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Emirates Stadium, London
The Footlab AI model makes Arsenal the favourite at 64%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for Aston Villa. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.5% of the 3,627 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arsenal vs Aston Villa?
Arsenal starts as the favourite with a 144-point Elo edge (2,501 vs 2,357).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Arsenal vs Aston Villa
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Arsenal
4-2-3-1- 29K. Havertz
- 41D. Rice
- 8M. Ødegaard
- 20N. Madueke
- 10E. Eze
- 7B. Saka
- 6Gabriel Magalhães
- 15E. Konsa
- 4B. White
- 49M. Lewis-Skelly
- 1David Raya
Aston Villa
4-2-3-1- 11N. Jackson
- 35João Gomes
- 8B. Kamara
- 44J. Manzambi
- 7J. McGinn
- 47Alysson Edward
- 3V. Lindelöf
- 2M. Cash
- 14Pau Torres
- 5T. Mings
- 1Z. Suzuki
Computed on October 26, 2026 at 05:28 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arsenal have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Aston Villa have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Everton(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Bayern München(away) | 2-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Lille(home) | 3-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Leeds(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Manchester City(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Viking(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Newcastle(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Fenerbahçe(home) | 6-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Brentford(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Arsenal wins, 1 draw, 2 Aston Villa wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | Aston Villa 0-1 Arsenal | Premier League |
| Dec 30, 2025 | Arsenal 4-1 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Aston Villa 2-1 Arsenal | Premier League |
| Jan 18, 2025 | Arsenal 2-2 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Aug 24, 2024 | Aston Villa 0-2 Arsenal | Premier League |
| Apr 14, 2024 | Arsenal 0-2 Aston Villa | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Aston Villa vs Arsenal on Aug 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Arsenal score 1.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Aston Villa score 1.9 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 1.9 | 0.9 | 8 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Aston Villa | 1.9 | 1.4 | 3 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arsenal sit 2nd in Premier League (21 points from 8 matches) and Aston Villa sit 9th (11 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Arsenal | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 21 |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 11 |
A question about Arsenal vs Aston Villa?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arsenal vs Aston Villa?
- The Footlab AI model makes Arsenal the favourite at 64%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for Aston Villa.
- Where and when is Arsenal vs Aston Villa played?
- Arsenal vs Aston Villa is played on April 17, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Emirates Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.5% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.