Aston Villa vs Sunderland: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 11Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Villa Park, Birmingham
The Footlab AI model makes Aston Villa the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Sunderland. The most likely score is 1-1. If Aston Villa wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,484 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 4, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
Aston Villa starts as the favourite with a 157-point Elo edge (2,217 vs 2,060).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Aston Villa vs Sunderland
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Aston Villa
4-2-3-1- 11N. Jackson
- 8B. Kamara
- 44J. Manzambi
- 7J. McGinn
- 35João Gomes
- 47Alysson Edward
- 3V. Lindelöf
- 2M. Cash
- 22I. Maatsen
- 14Pau Torres
- 1Z. Suzuki
Sunderland
4-2-3-1- 9B. Brobbey
- 34G. Xhaka
- 27N. Sadiki
- 28E. Le Fée
- 10N. Angulo
- 11C. Rigg
- 32T. Hume
- 17Reinildo
- 13L. O'Nien
- 15O. Alderete
- 22R. Roefs
Computed on November 4, 2026 at 01:39 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aston Villa have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Sunderland have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | Barcelona(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Fulham(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Bournemouth(away) | 0-3 | League Cup |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Manchester City(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Viking(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Coventry(away) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Brentford(home) | 3-2 | League Cup |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Leeds(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Lech Poznan(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Bournemouth(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Aston Villa wins, 2 draws, 1 Sunderland win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Aston Villa 4-3 Sunderland | Premier League |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Sunderland 1-1 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Mar 6, 2018 | Sunderland 0-3 Aston Villa | Championship |
| Nov 21, 2017 | Aston Villa 2-1 Sunderland | Championship |
| Jan 2, 2016 | Sunderland 3-1 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Aug 29, 2015 | Aston Villa 2-2 Sunderland | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Aston Villa vs Sunderland on Apr 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aston Villa score 1.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Sunderland score 1.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 1.9 | 1.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Sunderland | 1.1 | 1.5 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aston Villa sit 10th in Premier League (12 points from 9 matches) and Sunderland sit 20th (5 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Aston Villa | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 12 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 5 |
A question about Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
- The Footlab AI model makes Aston Villa the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Sunderland.
- Where and when is Aston Villa vs Sunderland played?
- Aston Villa vs Sunderland is played on November 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Villa Park, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.