Chelsea vs Leeds: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 11Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stamford Bridge, London
The Footlab AI model makes Chelsea the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Leeds. The most likely score is 1-1. If Chelsea wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.6% of the 3,573 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chelsea vs Leeds?
A very open match: only 8 Elo points separate Chelsea (2,287) and Leeds (2,279).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Chelsea vs Leeds
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Chelsea
3-4-2-1- 17M. Rogers
- 10C. Palmer
- 7Pedro Neto
- 14J. Henderson
- 25M. Caicedo
- 21J. Hato
- 23Geovany Tcherno Quenda
- 6L. Colwill
- 5M. Lacroix
- 34Joshua Kofi Acheampong
- 1E. Martínez
Leeds
3-4-2-1- 9D. Calvert-Lewin
- 4E. Ampadu
- 2J. Bogle
- 22A. Tanaka
- 3G. Gudmundsson
- 18A. Stach
- 19N. Okafor
- 24J. Justin
- 5T. Muharemović
- 30N. Elvedi
- 1J. Trafford
Computed on October 26, 2026 at 11:07 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chelsea have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Leeds have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Tottenham(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Everton(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Bournemouth(home) | 5-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Brentford(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Hull City(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Sunderland(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Manchester United(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Arsenal(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Crystal Palace(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Newcastle(home) | 4-1 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Chelsea wins, 1 draw, 1 Leeds win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 2026 | Chelsea 6-3 Leeds | League Cup |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Chelsea 1-0 Leeds | FA Cup |
| Feb 10, 2026 | Chelsea 2-2 Leeds | Premier League |
| Dec 3, 2025 | Leeds 3-1 Chelsea | Premier League |
| Feb 28, 2024 | Chelsea 3-2 Leeds | FA Cup |
| Mar 4, 2023 | Chelsea 1-0 Leeds | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Chelsea score 2.3 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Leeds score 1.7 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 2.3 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Leeds | 1.7 | 1.0 | 7 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chelsea sit 5th in Premier League (13 points from 8 matches) and Leeds sit 7th (11 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Chelsea | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 13 |
| 7 | Leeds | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 11 |
A question about Chelsea vs Leeds?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chelsea vs Leeds?
- The Footlab AI model makes Chelsea the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Leeds.
- Where and when is Chelsea vs Leeds played?
- Chelsea vs Leeds is played on November 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stamford Bridge, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.