Atalanta vs Napoli: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo
The Footlab model makes Atalanta the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Napoli. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atalanta vs Napoli?
A very open match: only 35 Elo points separate Atalanta (2,148) and Napoli (2,183).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atalanta have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Napoli have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sassuolo(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Hapoel Tel Aviv(home) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Schalke 04(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Feyenoord(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Genoa(away) | 2-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Aris Thessalonikis(home) | 6-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Celta Vigo(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Osasuna(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Carrarese(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Atalanta win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Napoli win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2026 | Atalanta 2-1 Napoli | Serie A |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Napoli 3-1 Atalanta | Serie A |
| Jan 18, 2025 | Atalanta 2-3 Napoli | Serie A |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Napoli 0-3 Atalanta | Serie A |
| Mar 30, 2024 | Napoli 0-3 Atalanta | Serie A |
| Nov 25, 2023 | Atalanta 1-2 Napoli | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Atalanta score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Napoli score 1.8 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Napoli | 1.8 | 0.9 | 8 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atalanta sit 5th in Serie A (3 points from 1 matches) and Napoli sit 2nd (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Napoli | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Atalanta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atalanta vs Napoli?
- The Footlab model makes Atalanta the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Napoli.
- Where and when is Atalanta vs Napoli played?
- Atalanta vs Napoli is played on December 20, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Gewiss Stadium, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.