Atalanta vs Napoli: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo
The Footlab AI model makes Napoli the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Atalanta. The most likely score is 1-1. If Napoli wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atalanta vs Napoli?
A very open match: only 37 Elo points separate Atalanta (2,118) and Napoli (2,155).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Atalanta vs Napoli
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Atalanta
4-3-3- 17C. De Ketelaere
- 11J. Rowe
- 90N. Krstović
- 13Éderson
- 19F. Kessié
- 10L. Samardžić
- 42G. Scalvini
- 16R. Bellanova
- 31T. Kristensen
- 77D. Zappacosta
- 29M. Carnesecchi
Napoli
3-4-2-1- 19R. Højlund
- 22G. Di Lorenzo
- 11K. De Bruyne
- 68S. Lobotka
- 21M. Politano
- 70N. Lang
- 37L. Spinazzola
- 13Amir Rrahmani
- 16Rafa Marín
- 5B. Badiashile
- 1A. Meret
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 02:41 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atalanta have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Napoli have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | Venezia(home) | 3-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Juventus(away) | 0-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Cagliari(home) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 5, 2026 | AS Roma(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Bologna(home) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Villarreal(away) | 1-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Frosinone(home) | 3-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Fiorentina(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Bologna(home) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Arsenal(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Atalanta wins, 0 draws, 3 Napoli wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2026 | Atalanta 2-1 Napoli | Serie A |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Napoli 3-1 Atalanta | Serie A |
| Jan 18, 2025 | Atalanta 2-3 Napoli | Serie A |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Napoli 0-3 Atalanta | Serie A |
| Mar 30, 2024 | Napoli 0-3 Atalanta | Serie A |
| Nov 25, 2023 | Atalanta 1-2 Napoli | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Atalanta score 1.2 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Napoli score 1.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | 1.2 | 0.9 | 6 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Napoli | 1.8 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atalanta sit 10th in Serie A (9 points from 6 matches) and Napoli sit 8th (10 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 9 |
A question about Atalanta vs Napoli?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atalanta vs Napoli?
- The Footlab AI model makes Napoli the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Atalanta.
- Where and when is Atalanta vs Napoli played?
- Atalanta vs Napoli is played on December 20, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Gewiss Stadium, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.