Fiorentina vs Bologna: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze
The Footlab AI model makes Fiorentina the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Bologna. The most likely score is 1-1. If Fiorentina wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 2,937 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fiorentina vs Bologna?
A very open match: only 1 Elo point separates Fiorentina (2,049) and Bologna (2,049).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Fiorentina vs Bologna
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Fiorentina
4-2-3-1- 32Mateo Pellegrino
- 30Franco Mastantuono
- 27C. Ndour
- 44N. Fagioli
- 25A. Njie
- 28Pote
- 3R. Drăgușin
- 20Álex Jiménez
- 33Viery
- 5M. Pongračić
- 43David de Gea
Bologna
3-4-2-1- 91R. Piccoli
- 28N. Cambiaghi
- 19L. Ferguson
- 4T. Pobega
- 33Juan Miranda
- 20N. Zortea
- 10F. Bernardeschi
- 16N. Casale
- 36M. Darmian
- 3A. Theate
- 1Ł. Skorupski
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fiorentina have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Bologna have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Como(home) | 1-3 | Serie A |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Genoa(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Napoli(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Pisa(home) | 3-0 | Coppa Italia |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Venezia(away) | 4-2 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Inter(home) | 1-3 | Serie A |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Lecce(away) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Torino(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Napoli(away) | 0-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Sassuolo(home) | 2-2 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Fiorentina wins, 2 draws, 2 Bologna wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 | Bologna 1-2 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Fiorentina 2-2 Bologna | Serie A |
| May 18, 2025 | Fiorentina 3-2 Bologna | Serie A |
| Dec 15, 2024 | Bologna 1-0 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| Feb 14, 2024 | Bologna 2-0 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| Jan 9, 2024 | Fiorentina 0-0 Bologna | Coppa Italia |
Last archived meeting: Bologna vs Fiorentina on Jan 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Fiorentina score 2.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Bologna score 1.1 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | 2.0 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Bologna | 1.1 | 1.6 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fiorentina sit 18th in Serie A (4 points from 7 matches) and Bologna sit 15th (5 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Bologna | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 5 |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 4 |
A question about Fiorentina vs Bologna?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fiorentina vs Bologna?
- The Footlab AI model makes Fiorentina the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Bologna.
- Where and when is Fiorentina vs Bologna played?
- Fiorentina vs Bologna is played on December 20, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Artemio Franchi, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.