Atalanta vs Sassuolo: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 1Kick-off on August 23, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo
The Footlab model makes Atalanta the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 18% for Sassuolo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atalanta vs Sassuolo?
Atalanta starts as the favourite with a 133-point Elo edge (2,181 vs 2,048).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atalanta have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Sassuolo have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Hapoel Tel Aviv(home) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Schalke 04(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Feyenoord(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 22, 2026 | Fiorentina(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Cesena(home) | 3-0 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Augsburg(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Celta Vigo(home) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Folgore Caratese(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Padova(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Atalanta win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Sassuolo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | Sassuolo 2-1 Atalanta | Serie A |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Atalanta 0-3 Sassuolo | Serie A |
| Feb 17, 2024 | Atalanta 3-0 Sassuolo | Serie A |
| Jan 3, 2024 | Atalanta 3-1 Sassuolo | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 20, 2023 | Sassuolo 0-2 Atalanta | Serie A |
| Feb 4, 2023 | Sassuolo 1-0 Atalanta | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Atalanta score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Sassuolo score 1.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | 1.2 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Sassuolo | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atalanta sit 7th in Serie A (59 points from 38 matches) and Sassuolo sit 11th (49 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Atalanta | 38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 51 | 36 | 59 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 46 | 50 | 49 |
Who is out?
11 reported absence(s) for this match.
- D. BerardiSassuoloDoubtful(Ankle Injury)
- D. BolocaSassuoloDoubtful(Muscle Injury)
- E. PieragnoloSassuoloOut(Knee Injury)
- Fali CandéSassuoloOut(Knee Injury)
- I. KonéSassuoloOut(Broken Leg)
- S. WalukiewiczSassuoloDoubtful(Leg Injury)
- Y. PazSassuoloOut(Knee Injury)
- G. ScalviniAtalantaDoubtful(Injury)
- H. AhanorAtalantaDoubtful(Muscle Injury)
- I. HienAtalantaOut(Muscle Injury)
- K. SulemanaAtalantaOut(Knee Injury)
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atalanta vs Sassuolo?
- The Footlab model makes Atalanta the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 18% for Sassuolo.
- Where and when is Atalanta vs Sassuolo played?
- Atalanta vs Sassuolo is played on August 23, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Gewiss Stadium, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.