Torino vs AC Milan: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 1Kick-off on August 23, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Torino
The Footlab model makes AC Milan the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Torino. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Torino vs AC Milan?
AC Milan starts as the favourite with a 148-point Elo edge (2,182 vs 2,034).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Torino have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; AC Milan have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Carrarese(home) | 1-0 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Avellino(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Burnley(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Cittadella(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Alcione(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Manchester United(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Inter(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Celtic(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 24, 2026 | Cagliari(home) | 1-2 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Torino win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 AC Milan win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | AC Milan 3-2 Torino | Serie A |
| Dec 8, 2025 | Torino 2-3 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Torino 2-1 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Aug 17, 2024 | AC Milan 2-2 Torino | Serie A |
| May 18, 2024 | Torino 3-1 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Aug 26, 2023 | AC Milan 4-1 Torino | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Torino score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; AC Milan score 1.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino | 1.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| AC Milan | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Torino sit 12th in Serie A (45 points from 38 matches) and AC Milan sit 5th (70 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | AC Milan | 38 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 53 | 35 | 70 |
| 12 | Torino | 38 | 12 | 9 | 17 | 44 | 63 | 45 |
Who is out?
8 reported absence(s) for this match.
- C. NkunkuAC MilanOut(Inactive)
- C. PulišićAC MilanDoubtful(Broken Leg)
- F. TomoriAC MilanOut(Inactive)
- Rafael LeãoAC MilanDoubtful(Muscle Injury)
- S. GiménezAC MilanDoubtful(Ankle Injury)
- Y. FofanaAC MilanOut(Inactive)
- E. CömertTorinoDoubtful(Injury)
- F. IsraelTorinoOut(Shoulder Injury)
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Torino vs AC Milan?
- The Footlab model makes AC Milan the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Torino.
- Where and when is Torino vs AC Milan played?
- Torino vs AC Milan is played on August 23, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.