Inter vs Monza: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 1Kick-off on August 22, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano
The Footlab model makes Inter the favourite at 62%, against 23% for a draw and 14% for Monza. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Inter vs Monza?
Inter is a heavy favourite: 2,349 Elo points against 2,018 — a 331-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Inter have 10 wins, 5 draws and 0 defeats; Monza have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Real Betis(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Juventus(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | AC Milan(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Manchester City(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Karlsruher SC(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Avellino(home) | 3-0 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Padova(home) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Aris Thessalonikis(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Galatasaray(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | PRO Vercelli(home) | 4-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Inter win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Monza win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2025 | Monza 2-2 Inter | Friendlies Clubs |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Inter 3-2 Monza | Serie A |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Monza 1-1 Inter | Serie A |
| Jan 13, 2024 | Monza 1-5 Inter | Serie A |
| Aug 19, 2023 | Inter 2-0 Monza | Serie A |
| Apr 15, 2023 | Inter 0-1 Monza | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Inter score 2.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Monza score 2.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter | 2.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Monza | 2.0 | 1.3 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 38 | 27 | 6 | 5 | 89 | 35 | 87 |
Who is out?
8 reported absence(s) for this match.
- H. MkhitaryanInterOut(Suspended)
- Dany MotaMonzaOut(Suspended)
- D. ThiamMonzaOut(Yellow Cards)
- E. AkinsanmiroMonzaOut(Muscle Injury)
- I. TouréMonzaOut(Knee Injury)
- L. ColomboMonzaOut(Injury)
- M. PessinaMonzaOut(Knee Injury)
- P. CiurriaMonzaOut(Inactive)
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Inter vs Monza?
- The Footlab model makes Inter the favourite at 62%, against 23% for a draw and 14% for Monza.
- Where and when is Inter vs Monza played?
- Inter vs Monza is played on August 22, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.