Genoa vs Napoli: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 1Kick-off on August 22, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Genova
The Footlab model makes Napoli the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Genoa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Genoa vs Napoli?
Napoli starts as the favourite with a 172-point Elo edge (2,206 vs 2,035).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Genoa have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Napoli have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Ascoli(home) | 4-1 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Bournemouth(away) | 1-10 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Leicester(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Vicenza Virtus(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | Aris Thessalonikis(home) | 6-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Celta Vigo(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Osasuna(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Carrarese(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Arezzo(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Genoa win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Napoli win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2026 | Genoa 2-3 Napoli | Serie A |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Napoli 2-1 Genoa | Serie A |
| May 11, 2025 | Napoli 2-2 Genoa | Serie A |
| Dec 21, 2024 | Genoa 1-2 Napoli | Serie A |
| Feb 17, 2024 | Napoli 1-1 Genoa | Serie A |
| Sep 16, 2023 | Genoa 2-2 Napoli | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Genoa score 1.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Napoli score 1.8 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa | 1.0 | 1.7 | 3 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Napoli | 1.8 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Genoa sit 16th in Serie A (41 points from 38 matches) and Napoli sit 2nd (76 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Napoli | 38 | 23 | 7 | 8 | 58 | 36 | 76 |
| 16 | Genoa | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 41 | 51 | 41 |
Who is out?
7 reported absence(s) for this match.
- A. BuongiornoNapoliOut(Knee Injury)
- Luca MarianucciNapoliOut(Knee Injury)
- M. FolorunshoNapoliOut(Inactive)
- P. MazzocchiNapoliOut(Knee Injury)
- E. HavelGenoaOut(Thigh Injury)
- H. TraorèGenoaDoubtful(Muscle Injury)
- L. VenturinoGenoaOut(Knee Injury)
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Genoa vs Napoli?
- The Footlab model makes Napoli the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Genoa.
- Where and when is Genoa vs Napoli played?
- Genoa vs Napoli is played on August 22, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.