Athletic Club vs Barcelona: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 26Kick-off on February 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)San Mamés Barria, Bilbao
The Footlab model makes Barcelona the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 28% for Athletic Club. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Athletic Club vs Barcelona?
Barcelona is a heavy favourite: 2,390 Elo points against 2,052 — a 337-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Athletic Club have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Barcelona have 11, 1 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sevilla(home) | 1-3 | La Liga |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Zaragoza(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Atalanta(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Marseille(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Burgos(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Elche(away) | 5-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Al Ahly(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Basel 1893(away) | 5-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Udinese(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Athletic Club win(s), 0 draw(s), 6 Barcelona win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | Athletic Club 0-1 Barcelona | La Liga |
| Jan 7, 2026 | Barcelona 5-0 Athletic Club | Super Cup |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Barcelona 4-0 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| May 25, 2025 | Athletic Club 0-3 Barcelona | La Liga |
| Jan 8, 2025 | Athletic Club 0-2 Barcelona | Super Cup |
| Aug 24, 2024 | Barcelona 2-1 Athletic Club | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Athletic Club vs Barcelona on Mar 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Athletic Club score 2.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Barcelona score 2.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 2.3 | 1.5 | 5 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Barcelona | 2.1 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Athletic Club sit 20th in La Liga (0 points from 1 matches) and Barcelona sit 4th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Barcelona | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| 20 | Athletic Club | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Athletic Club vs Barcelona?
- The Footlab model makes Barcelona the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 28% for Athletic Club.
- Where and when is Athletic Club vs Barcelona played?
- Athletic Club vs Barcelona is played on February 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at San Mamés Barria, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.