Athletic Club vs Barcelona: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 26Kick-off on February 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)San Mamés Barria, Bilbao
The Footlab AI model makes Barcelona the favourite at 56%, against 23% for a draw and 21% for Athletic Club. The most likely score is 1-1. If Barcelona wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 4,938 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Athletic Club vs Barcelona?
Barcelona is a heavy favourite: 2,397 Elo points against 2,076, a 321-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Athletic Club vs Barcelona
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Athletic Club
4-2-3-1- 9I. Williams
- 7Álex Berenguer
- 28Peio Canales
- 10Nico Williams
- 24Beñat Gerenabarrena
- 23Robert Navarro
- 15Hugo Rincón
- 17Yuri
- 14Aymeric Laporte
- 3Dani Vivian
- 1Unai Simón
Barcelona
4-3-3- 10Lamine Yamal
- 11Raphinha
- 17A. Gordon
- 8Pedri
- 16Rodri
- 7Fermín
- 5Pau Cubarsí Paredes
- 2João Cancelo
- 18Gerard Martín
- 4B. Farinas
- 1Joan García
Computed on November 8, 2026 at 01:10 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Athletic Club have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Barcelona have 13, 0 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Osasuna(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Real Sociedad(home) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Prat(away) | 6-1 | Copa del Rey |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Getafe(home) | 4-0 | La Liga |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Levante(away) | 1-3 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | Aston Villa(home) | 3-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Alaves(home) | 6-1 | La Liga |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Real Madrid(home) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(away) | 2-4 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Real Betis(away) | 5-2 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Athletic Club wins, 0 draws, 6 Barcelona wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 27, 2026 | Barcelona 2-0 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| Mar 7, 2026 | Athletic Club 0-1 Barcelona | La Liga |
| Jan 7, 2026 | Barcelona 5-0 Athletic Club | Super Cup |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Barcelona 4-0 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| May 25, 2025 | Athletic Club 0-3 Barcelona | La Liga |
| Jan 8, 2025 | Athletic Club 0-2 Barcelona | Super Cup |
Last archived meeting: Barcelona vs Athletic Club on Aug 27, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Athletic Club score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Barcelona score 4.0 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 1.5 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Barcelona | 4.0 | 1.2 | 5 | 10/15 | 14/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Athletic Club sit 7th in La Liga (16 points from 11 matches) and Barcelona sit 1st (30 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 46 | 12 | 30 |
| 7 | Athletic Club | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 16 |
A question about Athletic Club vs Barcelona?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Athletic Club vs Barcelona?
- The Footlab AI model makes Barcelona the favourite at 56%, against 23% for a draw and 21% for Athletic Club.
- Where and when is Athletic Club vs Barcelona played?
- Athletic Club vs Barcelona is played on February 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at San Mamés Barria, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.