Malaga vs Atletico Madrid: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 26Kick-off on February 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio La Rosaleda, Málaga
The Footlab AI model makes Atletico Madrid the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Malaga. The most likely score is 1-1. If Atletico Madrid wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Malaga vs Atletico Madrid?
Atletico Madrid starts as the favourite with a 250-point Elo edge (2,280 vs 2,030).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Malaga vs Atletico Madrid
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Malaga
4-1-4-1- 9Chupe
- 10David Larrubia
- 22Dani Lorenzo
- 11Joaquín Muñoz
- 18Pablo Martínez
- 14Rafa Rodríguez
- 15Ángel Recio
- 31Rafita
- 3Puga
- 12José Salinas
- 1Alfonso Herrero
Atletico Madrid
4-4-2- 7Lee Kang-In
- 15J. David
- 20G. Simeone
- 5J. Cardoso
- 8Pablo Barrios
- 10Álex Baena
- 14Marcos Llorente
- 22Álex Grimaldo
- 21C. Romero
- 17D. Hancko
- 13J. Oblak
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 07:45 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Malaga have 2 wins, 8 draws and 5 defeats; Atletico Madrid have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Getafe(away) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 1-3 | La Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Celta Vigo(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Levante(home) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Manchester United(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Alaves(away) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Real Madrid(home) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Osasuna(home) | 4-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Real Sociedad(away) | 3-0 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Malaga wins, 0 draws, 6 Atletico Madrid wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Atletico Madrid 2-0 Malaga | La Liga |
| Feb 10, 2018 | Malaga 0-1 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Sep 16, 2017 | Atletico Madrid 1-0 Malaga | La Liga |
| Apr 1, 2017 | Malaga 0-2 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Oct 29, 2016 | Atletico Madrid 4-2 Malaga | La Liga |
| Apr 23, 2016 | Atletico Madrid 1-0 Malaga | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Atletico Madrid vs Malaga on Aug 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Malaga score 1.2 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico Madrid score 2.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Atletico Madrid | 2.0 | 1.5 | 4 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Malaga sit 20th in La Liga (4 points from 8 matches) and Atletico Madrid sit 2nd (19 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 8 | 19 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 4 |
A question about Malaga vs Atletico Madrid?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Malaga vs Atletico Madrid?
- The Footlab AI model makes Atletico Madrid the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Malaga.
- Where and when is Malaga vs Atletico Madrid played?
- Malaga vs Atletico Madrid is played on February 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio La Rosaleda, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.