Real Madrid vs Valencia: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 26Kick-off on February 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid
The Footlab AI model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 70%, against 19% for a draw and 11% for Valencia. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,479 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Real Madrid vs Valencia?
Real Madrid starts as the favourite with a 290-point Elo edge (2,352 vs 2,063).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Real Madrid vs Valencia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Real Madrid
4-2-3-1- 10Kylian Mbappé
- 8F. Valverde
- 5J. Bellingham
- 14A. Tchouaméni
- 25Y. Diomande
- 15A. Güler
- 16I. Konaté
- 22A. Rüdiger
- 17Marc Cucurella
- 24D. Dumfries
- 1T. Courtois
Valencia
5-4-1- 9Hugo Duro
- 8Javi Guerra
- 23F. Ugrinic
- 2G. Rodríguez
- 19Dani Raba
- 18Pepelu
- 14José Gayà
- 24Pablo Maffeo
- 12J. de Haas
- 4M. Diakhaby
- 1S. Dimitrievski
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 09:35 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Madrid have 12 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats; Valencia have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | AS Roma(away) | 4-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 1-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Elche(away) | 3-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano(home) | 4-1 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 2-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Real Sociedad(home) | 2-3 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Alaves(away) | 1-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sevilla(away) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Barcelona(home) | 0-5 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Real Madrid wins, 1 draw, 1 Valencia win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2026 | Valencia 0-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Real Madrid 4-0 Valencia | La Liga |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Real Madrid 1-2 Valencia | La Liga |
| Jan 3, 2025 | Valencia 1-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Mar 2, 2024 | Valencia 2-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Nov 11, 2023 | Real Madrid 5-1 Valencia | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Valencia vs Real Madrid on Feb 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Real Madrid score 2.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Valencia score 1.2 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 2.5 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Valencia | 1.2 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Real Madrid sit 4th in La Liga (18 points from 8 matches) and Valencia sit 19th (5 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 8 | 18 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 5 |
A question about Real Madrid vs Valencia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Real Madrid vs Valencia?
- The Footlab AI model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 70%, against 19% for a draw and 11% for Valencia.
- Where and when is Real Madrid vs Valencia played?
- Real Madrid vs Valencia is played on February 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.