Real Madrid vs Valencia: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 26Kick-off on February 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid
The Footlab model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 62%, against 22% for a draw and 16% for Valencia. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Real Madrid vs Valencia?
Real Madrid starts as the favourite with a 241-point Elo edge (2,339 vs 2,098).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Madrid have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Valencia have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Espanyol(away) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Schalke 04(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ferencvarosi TC(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Fiorentina(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Celta Vigo(home) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Newcastle(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stoke City(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Derby(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Castellón(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Real Madrid win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Valencia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2026 | Valencia 0-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Real Madrid 4-0 Valencia | La Liga |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Real Madrid 1-2 Valencia | La Liga |
| Jan 3, 2025 | Valencia 1-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Mar 2, 2024 | Valencia 2-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Nov 11, 2023 | Real Madrid 5-1 Valencia | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Valencia vs Real Madrid on Feb 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Real Madrid score 2.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Valencia score 1.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 2.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Valencia | 1.4 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Real Madrid sit 6th in La Liga (3 points from 1 matches) and Valencia sit 11th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Valencia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Real Madrid vs Valencia?
- The Footlab model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 62%, against 22% for a draw and 16% for Valencia.
- Where and when is Real Madrid vs Valencia played?
- Real Madrid vs Valencia is played on February 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.