Alaves vs Athletic Club: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 27Kick-off on March 7, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
The Footlab model makes Alaves the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Athletic Club. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alaves vs Athletic Club?
A very open match: only 23 Elo points separate Alaves (2,075) and Athletic Club (2,052).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alaves have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Athletic Club have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Getafe(home) | 3-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Castellón(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Girona(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sevilla(home) | 1-3 | La Liga |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Zaragoza(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Atalanta(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Marseille(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Burgos(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Alaves win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Athletic Club win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Alaves 2-4 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Athletic Club 0-1 Alaves | La Liga |
| Jul 22, 2025 | Alaves 1-0 Athletic Club | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 11, 2025 | Athletic Club 1-0 Alaves | La Liga |
| Dec 15, 2024 | Alaves 1-1 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| Mar 16, 2024 | Athletic Club 2-0 Alaves | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Alaves vs Athletic Club on May 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Alaves score 1.6 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Athletic Club score 2.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves | 1.6 | 1.2 | 5 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Athletic Club | 2.3 | 1.5 | 5 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alaves sit 2nd in La Liga (4 points from 2 matches) and Athletic Club sit 20th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Alaves | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4 |
| 20 | Athletic Club | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alaves vs Athletic Club?
- The Footlab model makes Alaves the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Athletic Club.
- Where and when is Alaves vs Athletic Club played?
- Alaves vs Athletic Club is played on March 7, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Mendizorroza, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.