Alaves vs Athletic Club: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 27Kick-off on March 7, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
The Footlab AI model makes Alaves the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Athletic Club. The most likely score is 1-1. If Alaves wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,524 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 5, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alaves vs Athletic Club?
A very open match: only 44 Elo points separate Alaves (2,064) and Athletic Club (2,107).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Alaves vs Athletic Club
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Alaves
5-3-2- 15L. Boyé
- 9M. Díaz
- 19Pablo Ibáñez
- 8Antonio Blanco
- 4Denis Suárez
- 14N. Tenaglia
- 21A. Rebbach
- 16V. Koski
- 7Angel Pérez
- 17Jonny
- 1Sivera
Athletic Club
4-2-3-1- 21Maroan Sannadi
- 7Álex Berenguer
- 9I. Williams
- 28Peio Canales
- 10Nico Williams
- 24Beñat Gerenabarrena
- 15Hugo Rincón
- 17Yuri
- 14Aymeric Laporte
- 3Dani Vivian
- 1Unai Simón
Computed on November 5, 2026 at 12:59 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alaves have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Athletic Club have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Barcelona(away) | 1-6 | La Liga |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Malaga(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Celta Vigo(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(home) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Athletic Club(away) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Real Sociedad(home) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Prat(away) | 6-1 | Copa del Rey |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Getafe(home) | 4-0 | La Liga |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Levante(away) | 1-3 | La Liga |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Valencia(away) | 0-0 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Alaves wins, 2 draws, 2 Athletic Club wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Athletic Club 0-0 Alaves | La Liga |
| May 2, 2026 | Alaves 2-4 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Athletic Club 0-1 Alaves | La Liga |
| Jul 22, 2025 | Alaves 1-0 Athletic Club | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 11, 2025 | Athletic Club 1-0 Alaves | La Liga |
| Dec 15, 2024 | Alaves 1-1 Athletic Club | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Athletic Club vs Alaves on Sep 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Alaves score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Athletic Club score 1.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves | 1.4 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Athletic Club | 1.7 | 1.2 | 6 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alaves sit 11th in La Liga (12 points from 11 matches) and Athletic Club sit 7th (15 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Athletic Club | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 10 | 15 |
| 11 | Alaves | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 17 | 12 |
A question about Alaves vs Athletic Club?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alaves vs Athletic Club?
- The Footlab AI model makes Alaves the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Athletic Club.
- Where and when is Alaves vs Athletic Club played?
- Alaves vs Athletic Club is played on March 7, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Mendizorroza, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.