Atletico Ascoli vs Vigor Senigallia: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone FGroup F - 24Kick-off on February 14, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Don Mauro Bartolini, Ascoli Piceno
The Footlab model makes Atletico Ascoli the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Vigor Senigallia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atletico Ascoli vs Vigor Senigallia?
A very open match: only 43 Elo points separate Atletico Ascoli (1,756) and Vigor Senigallia (1,713).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atletico Ascoli have 5 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats; Vigor Senigallia have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Pineto(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 10, 2026 | Teramo(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| May 3, 2026 | Teramo(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Sammaurese(away) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Fossombrone(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Unipomezia(away) | 3-3 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Chieti(home) | 2-3 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Castelfidardo Calcio(away) | 3-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Atletico Ascoli(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Recanatese(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Atletico Ascoli win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Vigor Senigallia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Vigor Senigallia 2-2 Atletico Ascoli | Serie D - Girone F |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Atletico Ascoli 2-1 Vigor Senigallia | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Vigor Senigallia 0-0 Atletico Ascoli | Serie D - Girone F |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Atletico Ascoli 2-2 Vigor Senigallia | Serie D - Girone F |
| Mar 3, 2024 | Vigor Senigallia 0-1 Atletico Ascoli | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 29, 2023 | Atletico Ascoli 1-2 Vigor Senigallia | Serie D - Girone F |
Last archived meeting: Vigor Senigallia vs Atletico Ascoli on Apr 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Atletico Ascoli score 1.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Vigor Senigallia score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Ascoli | 1.5 | 1.1 | 3 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
| Vigor Senigallia | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1 | 13/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atletico Ascoli sit 4th in Serie D - Girone F (55 points from 34 matches) and Vigor Senigallia sit 8th (49 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Atletico Ascoli | 34 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 55 | 34 | 55 |
| 8 | Vigor Senigallia | 34 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 45 | 40 | 49 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atletico Ascoli vs Vigor Senigallia?
- The Footlab model makes Atletico Ascoli the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Vigor Senigallia.
- Where and when is Atletico Ascoli vs Vigor Senigallia played?
- Atletico Ascoli vs Vigor Senigallia is played on February 14, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Don Mauro Bartolini, in the Serie D - Girone F.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.