Atlético Porcuna vs Malaga City: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 31Kick-off on April 11, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal San Benito, Porcuna
The Footlab model makes Atlético Porcuna the favourite at 56%, against 26% for a draw and 18% for Malaga City. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atlético Porcuna vs Malaga City?
Atlético Porcuna starts as the favourite with a 120-point Elo edge (1,716 vs 1,597).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atlético Porcuna have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Malaga City have 2, 2 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Motril(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 3, 2026 | Torre del Mar(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | El Palo(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | UD San Pedro(home) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Alhaurino(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2025 | Arenas Armilla(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 4, 2025 | Polideportivo Almería(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 1, 2025 | Real Jaén(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Mancha Real(home) | 4-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Mijas Las Lagunas(away) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Atlético Porcuna win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Malaga City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2025 | Malaga City 0-1 Atlético Porcuna | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Atlético Porcuna 0-2 Malaga City | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Mar 19, 2023 | Atlético Porcuna 2-1 Malaga City | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Nov 26, 2022 | Malaga City 1-0 Atlético Porcuna | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
Last archived meeting: Malaga City vs Atlético Porcuna on Feb 16, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Atlético Porcuna score 1.2 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Malaga City score 1.0 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Porcuna | 1.2 | 1.2 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Malaga City | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Atlético Porcuna | 34 | 14 | 4 | 16 | 41 | 39 | 46 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atlético Porcuna vs Malaga City?
- The Footlab model makes Atlético Porcuna the favourite at 56%, against 26% for a draw and 18% for Malaga City.
- Where and when is Atlético Porcuna vs Malaga City played?
- Atlético Porcuna vs Malaga City is played on April 11, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal San Benito, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.