Where and when is Motril vs Marbelli played?

Motril vs Marbelli is played on April 11, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Escribano Castilla, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Motril vs Marbelli: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 31Kick-off on April 11, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Escribano Castilla, Motril

Motril

Marbelli

The Footlab model makes Motril the favourite at 51%, against 29% for a draw and 20% for Marbelli. The most likely score is 1-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Motril vs Marbelli?

A very open match: only 77 Elo points separate Motril (1,854) and Marbelli (1,777).

Motril win51 %

Draw29 %

Marbelli win20 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Motril have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Marbelli have 6, 4 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Motril
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Jun 7, 2026	Arenas Armilla(home)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
May 31, 2026	Arenas Armilla(away)	0-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
May 24, 2026	Churriana Vega(home)	0-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
May 17, 2026	Churriana Vega(away)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
May 10, 2026	Atlético Porcuna(home)	2-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

Marbelli
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 10, 2026	Ciudad de Torredonjimeno(away)	2-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
May 3, 2026	Granada II(home)	0-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Apr 26, 2026	Huétor Vega(away)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Apr 19, 2026	Huétor Tájar(home)	2-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Apr 11, 2026	UD Melilla II(away)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Motril win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Marbelli win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 22, 2026	Motril 0-0 Marbelli	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Nov 9, 2025	Marbelli 1-1 Motril	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Feb 2, 2025	Marbelli 0-0 Motril	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Sep 22, 2024	Motril 2-0 Marbelli	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

Last archived meeting: Motril vs Marbelli on Mar 22, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Motril score 1.2 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Marbelli score 0.9 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Motril	1.2	0.8	6	8/15	6/15
Marbelli	0.9	0.7	7	6/15	4/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Motril sit 2nd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 (65 points from 34 matches) and Marbelli sit 6th (51 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
2	Motril	34	18	11	5	55	29	65
6	Marbelli	34	14	9	11	36	28	51

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Motril vs Marbelli?: The Footlab model makes Motril the favourite at 51%, against 29% for a draw and 20% for Marbelli.
Where and when is Motril vs Marbelli played?: Motril vs Marbelli is played on April 11, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Escribano Castilla, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.