Wellington Phoenix vs Macarthur: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 5Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC)Sky Stadium, Wellington
The Footlab AI model makes Wellington Phoenix the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Macarthur. The most likely score is 1-1. If Wellington Phoenix wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Wellington Phoenix vs Macarthur?
A very open match: only 72 Elo points separate Wellington Phoenix (1,726) and Macarthur (1,799).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Wellington Phoenix vs Macarthur
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Wellington Phoenix
4-4-2- 7I. Eze
- 3C. Piper
- 25K. Nagasawa
- 8P. Retre
- 20R. Najjarine
- 14A. Rufer
- 28B. Tuiloma
- 15I. Hughes
- 6T. Payne
- 18L. Kelly-Heald
- 1J. Oluwayemi
Macarthur
4-2-3-1- 9B. Gibson
- 17O. Randazzo
- 22L. Rose
- 35A. El-Sabeh
- 8L. Vickery
- 23K. Grozos
- 25C. Talbot
- 21N. Paull
- 33H. Menham
- 5J. Aspropotamitis
- 1A. Robinson
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 01:42 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Wellington Phoenix have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Macarthur have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | Macarthur(away) | 0-4 | A-League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Western Sydney Wanderers(home) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Melbourne City(away) | 0-2 | A-League |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Melbourne Victory(away) | 1-0 | A-League |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Brisbane Roar(away) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | SD Raiders(away) | 1-1 | Australia Cup |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Uni Azzurri(away) | 3-0 | Australia Cup |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Wellington Phoenix(home) | 4-0 | A-League |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Adelaide United(away) | 1-3 | A-League |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Perth Glory(away) | 1-3 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Wellington Phoenix wins, 0 draws, 3 Macarthur wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | Macarthur 4-0 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Wellington Phoenix 0-1 Macarthur | A-League |
| Jan 20, 2025 | Macarthur 1-2 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Dec 14, 2024 | Wellington Phoenix 1-2 Macarthur | A-League |
| Apr 27, 2024 | Wellington Phoenix 3-0 Macarthur | A-League |
| Feb 18, 2024 | Macarthur 1-2 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Macarthur vs Wellington Phoenix on Apr 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Wellington Phoenix score 1.3 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Macarthur score 1.5 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wellington Phoenix | 1.3 | 1.9 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Macarthur | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Wellington Phoenix sit 8th in A-League (33 points from 26 matches) and Macarthur sit 7th (34 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Macarthur | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 37 | 44 | 34 |
| 8 | Wellington Phoenix | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 36 | 48 | 33 |
A question about Wellington Phoenix vs Macarthur?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Wellington Phoenix vs Macarthur?
- The Footlab AI model makes Wellington Phoenix the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Macarthur.
- Where and when is Wellington Phoenix vs Macarthur played?
- Wellington Phoenix vs Macarthur is played on November 22, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC) at Sky Stadium, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.