Aurrerá Vitoria vs Aretxabaleta: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 27Kick-off on March 21, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Olaranbe, Vitoria-Gasteiz
The Footlab AI model makes Aurrerá Vitoria the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Aretxabaleta. The most likely score is 1-1. If Aurrerá Vitoria wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 4,445 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 4, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aurrerá Vitoria vs Aretxabaleta?
On Elo ratings, Aurrerá Vitoria has 1,752 points and Aretxabaleta 1,739.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Aurrerá Vitoria vs Aretxabaleta
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Aurrerá Vitoria
4-3-3- ÍÍñigo Hernández
- DDevis
- AAsier Ruiz
- MMartín Asurmendi
- MMikel Gonzalez
- AAritz Castro
- JJoel Martinez
- YYeray Terrazas
- HHodei Gastaminza
- JJon Rementería
- JJulen Barria
Aretxabaleta
Not enough data to predict the Aretxabaleta lineup.
Computed on November 4, 2026 at 11:34 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aurrerá Vitoria have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Aretxabaleta have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Santurtzi(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 24, 2026 | San Ignacio(away) | 0-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Real Sociedad III(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Leioa(away) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Erandio(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Amurrio Club(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Eibar III(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | R. Union B(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Pasaia KE(home) | 4-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Lagun Onak(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Aurrerá Vitoria win, 0 draws, 1 Aretxabaleta win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2026 | Aurrerá Vitoria 5-1 Aretxabaleta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Aretxabaleta 4-2 Aurrerá Vitoria | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Aurrerá Vitoria vs Aretxabaleta on Feb 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aurrerá Vitoria score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Aretxabaleta score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aurrerá Vitoria | 1.3 | 1.4 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Aretxabaleta | 1.5 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aurrerá Vitoria sit 3rd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (16 points from 8 matches) and Aretxabaleta sit 7th (14 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Aurrerá Vitoria | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 13 | 16 |
| 7 | Aretxabaleta | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 14 |
A question about Aurrerá Vitoria vs Aretxabaleta?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aurrerá Vitoria vs Aretxabaleta?
- The Footlab AI model makes Aurrerá Vitoria the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Aretxabaleta.
- Where and when is Aurrerá Vitoria vs Aretxabaleta played?
- Aurrerá Vitoria vs Aretxabaleta is played on March 21, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Olaranbe, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.