Deportivo Alavés III vs Santurtzi: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 27Kick-off on March 21, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón 4, Vitoria-Gasteiz
The Footlab model makes Deportivo Alavés III the favourite at 65%, against 21% for a draw and 14% for Santurtzi. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Deportivo Alavés III vs Santurtzi?
Deportivo Alavés III starts as the favourite with a 111-point Elo edge (1,799 vs 1,687).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Deportivo Alavés III have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Santurtzi have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Portugalete(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | San Ignacio(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Derio(home) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 16, 2026 | Touring(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Zarautz(home) | 5-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Eibar III(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 9, 2026 | Durango(away) | 1-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Zamudio(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Zarautz(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Deportivo Alavés III win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Santurtzi win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Santurtzi 2-2 Deportivo Alavés III | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Deportivo Alavés III 1-1 Santurtzi | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2025 | Santurtzi 2-0 Deportivo Alavés III | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Dec 21, 2024 | Deportivo Alavés III 3-1 Santurtzi | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Santurtzi vs Deportivo Alavés III on Feb 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Deportivo Alavés III score 2.0 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Santurtzi score 0.8 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés III | 2.0 | 1.2 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Santurtzi | 0.8 | 1.5 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Deportivo Alavés III sit 9th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (53 points from 34 matches) and Santurtzi sit 12th (39 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Deportivo Alavés III | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 57 | 40 | 53 |
| 12 | Santurtzi | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 32 | 45 | 39 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Deportivo Alavés III vs Santurtzi?
- The Footlab model makes Deportivo Alavés III the favourite at 65%, against 21% for a draw and 14% for Santurtzi.
- Where and when is Deportivo Alavés III vs Santurtzi played?
- Deportivo Alavés III vs Santurtzi is played on March 21, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón 4, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.