Aurrerá Vitoria vs Lagun Onak: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 31Kick-off on April 18, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Olaranbe, Vitoria-Gasteiz
The Footlab model makes Aurrerá Vitoria the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Lagun Onak. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aurrerá Vitoria vs Lagun Onak?
A very open match: only 84 Elo points separate Aurrerá Vitoria (1,704) and Lagun Onak (1,789).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aurrerá Vitoria have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Lagun Onak have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Deusto(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Portugalete(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | San Ignacio(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Derio(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Touring(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Derio(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 17, 2026 | Derio(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 9, 2026 | Leioa(away) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Eibar III(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Añorga(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Aurrerá Vitoria win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Lagun Onak win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | Lagun Onak 4-0 Aurrerá Vitoria | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 6, 2025 | Aurrerá Vitoria 3-1 Lagun Onak | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 22, 2023 | Lagun Onak 1-0 Aurrerá Vitoria | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Jan 7, 2023 | Aurrerá Vitoria 1-1 Lagun Onak | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Lagun Onak vs Aurrerá Vitoria on Jan 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aurrerá Vitoria score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Lagun Onak score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aurrerá Vitoria | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Lagun Onak | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aurrerá Vitoria sit 8th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (54 points from 34 matches) and Lagun Onak sit 4th (57 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lagun Onak | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 53 | 34 | 57 |
| 8 | Aurrerá Vitoria | 34 | 16 | 7 | 12 | 42 | 40 | 54 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aurrerá Vitoria vs Lagun Onak?
- The Footlab model makes Aurrerá Vitoria the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Lagun Onak.
- Where and when is Aurrerá Vitoria vs Lagun Onak played?
- Aurrerá Vitoria vs Lagun Onak is played on April 18, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Olaranbe, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.