Leioa vs Aretxabaleta: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 31Kick-off on April 18, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Sarriena, Leioa
The Footlab model makes Leioa the favourite at 61%, against 21% for a draw and 18% for Aretxabaleta. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leioa vs Aretxabaleta?
Leioa starts as the favourite with a 145-point Elo edge (1,840 vs 1,695).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leioa have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Aretxabaleta have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 0-11 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Albacete II(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Albacete II(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Derio(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 31, 2026 | Derio(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Zamudio(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Santurtzi(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Real Sociedad III(home) | 2-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Pasaia KE(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Lagun Onak(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Leioa win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Aretxabaleta win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Aretxabaleta 3-2 Leioa | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Leioa 2-4 Aretxabaleta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Leioa 2-1 Aretxabaleta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Aretxabaleta 2-1 Leioa | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Aretxabaleta vs Leioa on Feb 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Leioa score 1.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Aretxabaleta score 2.0 and concede 2.4. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leioa | 1.1 | 1.7 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Aretxabaleta | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1 | 13/15 | 14/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Leioa sit 2nd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (61 points from 34 matches) and Aretxabaleta sit 10th (45 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Leioa | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 50 | 34 | 61 |
| 10 | Aretxabaleta | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 56 | 61 | 45 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leioa vs Aretxabaleta?
- The Footlab model makes Leioa the favourite at 61%, against 21% for a draw and 18% for Aretxabaleta.
- Where and when is Leioa vs Aretxabaleta played?
- Leioa vs Aretxabaleta is played on April 18, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Sarriena, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.