Aurrerá Vitoria vs Real Sociedad III: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 7Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Olaranbe, Vitoria-Gasteiz
The Footlab model makes Real Sociedad III the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Aurrerá Vitoria. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aurrerá Vitoria vs Real Sociedad III?
A very open match: only 93 Elo points separate Aurrerá Vitoria (1,701) and Real Sociedad III (1,794).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aurrerá Vitoria have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Real Sociedad III have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Deusto(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Portugalete(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | San Ignacio(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Derio(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Touring(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Añorga(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Durango(home) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(away) | 5-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 16, 2026 | Zamudio(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Santurtzi(away) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Aurrerá Vitoria win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Real Sociedad III win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | Real Sociedad III 0-1 Aurrerá Vitoria | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Aurrerá Vitoria 0-3 Real Sociedad III | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Real Sociedad III vs Aurrerá Vitoria on Jan 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aurrerá Vitoria score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Real Sociedad III score 1.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aurrerá Vitoria | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Real Sociedad III | 1.7 | 1.2 | 7 | 5/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aurrerá Vitoria sit 8th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (54 points from 34 matches) and Real Sociedad III sit 6th (55 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Real Sociedad III | 34 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 48 | 39 | 55 |
| 8 | Aurrerá Vitoria | 34 | 16 | 7 | 12 | 42 | 40 | 54 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aurrerá Vitoria vs Real Sociedad III?
- The Footlab model makes Real Sociedad III the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Aurrerá Vitoria.
- Where and when is Aurrerá Vitoria vs Real Sociedad III played?
- Aurrerá Vitoria vs Real Sociedad III is played on October 18, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Olaranbe, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.