Eibar III vs Santurtzi: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 7Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa, Eibar
The Footlab model makes Eibar III the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for Santurtzi. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Eibar III vs Santurtzi?
A very open match: only 22 Elo points separate Eibar III (1,705) and Santurtzi (1,683).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Eibar III have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Santurtzi have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Santurtzi(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 9, 2026 | Pasaia KE(home) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Lagun Onak(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Deusto(home) | 5-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 17, 2026 | Portugalete(away) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Eibar III(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 9, 2026 | Durango(away) | 1-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Zamudio(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Zarautz(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Eibar III win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Santurtzi win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Eibar III 3-1 Santurtzi | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jan 24, 2026 | Eibar III 1-1 Santurtzi | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Santurtzi 2-0 Eibar III | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Feb 16, 2025 | Santurtzi 3-0 Eibar III | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Eibar III 2-1 Santurtzi | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Eibar III vs Santurtzi on Aug 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Eibar III score 1.9 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Santurtzi score 0.8 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eibar III | 1.9 | 1.4 | 4 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Santurtzi | 0.8 | 1.5 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Eibar III sit 13th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (36 points from 34 matches) and Santurtzi sit 12th (39 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Santurtzi | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 32 | 45 | 39 |
| 13 | Eibar III | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 44 | 53 | 36 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Eibar III vs Santurtzi?
- The Footlab model makes Eibar III the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for Santurtzi.
- Where and when is Eibar III vs Santurtzi played?
- Eibar III vs Santurtzi is played on October 18, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.