Touring vs Derio: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 7Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Campo de Fútbol Fandería, Errenteria
The Footlab AI model makes Touring the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Derio. The most likely score is 1-1. If Touring wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Touring vs Derio?
A very open match: only 21 Elo points separate Touring (1,718) and Derio (1,739).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Touring vs Derio
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Touring
Not enough data to predict the Touring lineup.
Derio
Not enough data to predict the Derio lineup.
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 10:20 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Touring have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Derio have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Sodupe(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Durango(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Deportivo Alavés III(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Beasain(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Aurrerá Vitoria(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Durango(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Beasain(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Santurtzi(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Salamanca UDS(home) | 3-5 | Copa Federacion |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Touring wins, 0 draws, 2 Derio wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Derio 2-1 Touring | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Jan 4, 2026 | Touring 5-2 Derio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Derio 0-2 Touring | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Touring 0-1 Derio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Mar 16, 2024 | Derio 0-2 Touring | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 28, 2023 | Touring 2-1 Derio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
How many goals should we expect?
Touring score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Derio score 1.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Touring | 1.3 | 1.3 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Derio | 1.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 5/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Touring sit 8th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (8 points from 6 matches) and Derio sit 3rd (12 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Derio | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Touring | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 8 |
A question about Touring vs Derio?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Touring vs Derio?
- The Footlab AI model makes Touring the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Derio.
- Where and when is Touring vs Derio played?
- Touring vs Derio is played on October 17, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Campo de Fútbol Fandería, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.