Touring vs Derio: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 7Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Campo de Fútbol Fandería, Errenteria
The Footlab model makes Touring the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Derio. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Touring vs Derio?
A very open match: only 1 Elo points separate Touring (1,781) and Derio (1,781).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Touring have 8 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats; Derio have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Beasain(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Leioa(away) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 16, 2026 | Leioa(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 9, 2026 | San Ignacio(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Derio(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 15, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Leioa(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 31, 2026 | Leioa(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 24, 2026 | Lagun Onak(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 17, 2026 | Lagun Onak(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Touring win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Derio win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Derio 2-1 Touring | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Jan 4, 2026 | Touring 5-2 Derio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Derio 0-2 Touring | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Touring 0-1 Derio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Mar 16, 2024 | Derio 0-2 Touring | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 28, 2023 | Touring 2-1 Derio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
How many goals should we expect?
Touring score 1.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Derio score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Touring | 1.7 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Derio | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Touring sit 5th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (57 points from 34 matches) and Derio sit 3rd (58 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Derio | 34 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 54 | 40 | 58 |
| 5 | Touring | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 47 | 35 | 57 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Touring vs Derio?
- The Footlab model makes Touring the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Derio.
- Where and when is Touring vs Derio played?
- Touring vs Derio is played on October 18, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Campo de Fútbol Fandería, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.