Pasaia KE vs Beasain: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 7Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Campo de fútbol Jesus Mari Zamora, Errenteria
The Footlab AI model makes Beasain the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Pasaia KE. The most likely score is 1-1. If Beasain wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,466 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pasaia KE vs Beasain?
Beasain starts as the favourite with a 190-point Elo edge (1,839 vs 1,649).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Pasaia KE vs Beasain
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Pasaia KE
Not enough data to predict the Pasaia KE lineup.
Beasain
Not enough data to predict the Beasain lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 05:35 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pasaia KE have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Beasain have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(away) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Santurtzi(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | San Ignacio(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Real Sociedad III(home) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Leioa(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Lagun Onak(home) | 4-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Derio(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Durango(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Touring(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Pasaia KE wins, 0 draws, 3 Beasain wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2025 | Beasain 4-0 Pasaia KE | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Nov 16, 2024 | Pasaia KE 4-1 Beasain | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 13, 2024 | Beasain 1-0 Pasaia KE | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Nov 25, 2023 | Pasaia KE 0-1 Beasain | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Jan 22, 2022 | Pasaia KE 1-0 Beasain | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 18, 2021 | Beasain 2-3 Pasaia KE | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
How many goals should we expect?
Pasaia KE score 1.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Beasain score 1.4 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pasaia KE | 1.1 | 1.7 | 4 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Beasain | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Pasaia KE sit 7th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (10 points from 6 matches) and Beasain sit 12th (7 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Pasaia KE | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 10 |
| 12 | Beasain | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 7 |
A question about Pasaia KE vs Beasain?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pasaia KE vs Beasain?
- The Footlab AI model makes Beasain the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Pasaia KE.
- Where and when is Pasaia KE vs Beasain played?
- Pasaia KE vs Beasain is played on October 17, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Campo de fútbol Jesus Mari Zamora, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.