Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 24Kick-off on March 13, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre
The Footlab model makes Paris Saint Germain the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Auxerre. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain is a heavy favourite: 2,293 Elo points against 1,957 — a 336-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Auxerre have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Paris Saint Germain have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lens(away) | 2-5 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Werder Bremen(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Estac Troyes(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sochaux(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Orleans(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Rennes(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lens(away) | 0-1 | Trophée des Champions |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Aston Villa(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Super Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Manchester United(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Mallorca(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Auxerre win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Paris Saint Germain win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | Auxerre 0-1 Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Paris Saint Germain 2-0 Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
| May 17, 2025 | Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
| Dec 6, 2024 | Auxerre 0-0 Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| May 21, 2023 | Auxerre 1-2 Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 13, 2022 | Paris Saint Germain 5-0 Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
Last archived meeting: Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain on Jan 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Auxerre score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Paris Saint Germain score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auxerre | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Paris Saint Germain | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Auxerre sit 17th in Ligue 1 (0 points from 1 matches) and Paris Saint Germain sit 9th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Paris Saint Germain | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 17 | Auxerre | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain?
- The Footlab model makes Paris Saint Germain the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Auxerre.
- Where and when is Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain played?
- Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain is played on March 13, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.