Aveley vs Carshalton Athletic: prediction and stats
Non League Premier - IsthmianRegular Season - 29Kick-off on January 30, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Parkside Stadium, Aveley, Essex
The Footlab model makes Aveley the favourite at 53%, against 22% for a draw and 25% for Carshalton Athletic. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aveley vs Carshalton Athletic?
A very open match: only 91 Elo points separate Aveley (1,883) and Carshalton Athletic (1,792).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aveley have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Carshalton Athletic have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Three Bridges(away) | 5-1 | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Whitehawk(home) | 3-2 | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Maldon & Tiptree(away) | 0-1 | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Eastbourne Borough(home) | 2-2 | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Southend(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Stanway Rovers(away) | 2-1 | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Cray Wanderers(home) | 2-1 | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Wingate & Finchley(home) | 2-0 | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Whyteleafe(away) | 2-0 | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Dover(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Aveley win(s), 4 draw(s), 1 Carshalton Athletic win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Aveley 0-0 Carshalton Athletic | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Carshalton Athletic 1-1 Aveley | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| Mar 4, 2023 | Aveley 0-0 Carshalton Athletic | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| Oct 10, 2022 | Carshalton Athletic 1-0 Aveley | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| Dec 16, 2019 | Aveley 2-0 Carshalton Athletic | FA Trophy |
| Dec 14, 2019 | Carshalton Athletic 3-3 Aveley | FA Trophy |
Last archived meeting: Aveley vs Carshalton Athletic on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aveley score 2.4 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Carshalton Athletic score 1.8 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aveley | 2.4 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Carshalton Athletic | 1.8 | 1.2 | 5 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aveley sit 6th in Non League Premier - Isthmian (7 points from 4 matches) and Carshalton Athletic sit 1st (12 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carshalton Athletic | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Aveley | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aveley vs Carshalton Athletic?
- The Footlab model makes Aveley the favourite at 53%, against 22% for a draw and 25% for Carshalton Athletic.
- Where and when is Aveley vs Carshalton Athletic played?
- Aveley vs Carshalton Athletic is played on January 30, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Parkside Stadium, in the Non League Premier - Isthmian.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Jan 30, 2027LeatherheadvsDartford
- Jan 30, 2027Eastbourne BoroughvsEnfield Town
- Jan 30, 2027WhitehawkvsCray Wanderers
- Jan 30, 2027Brentwood TownvsWingate & Finchley
- Jan 30, 2027Burgess Hill TownvsStanway Rovers
- Jan 30, 2027WhyteleafevsSt Albans City
- Jan 30, 2027Maldon & TiptreevsChatham Town
- Jan 30, 2027CheshuntvsThree Bridges