Ayr Utd vs Arbroath: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 22Kick-off on January 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Somerset Park, Ayr
The Footlab AI model makes Ayr Utd the favourite at 55%, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Arbroath. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ayr Utd vs Arbroath?
On Elo ratings, Ayr Utd has 1,701 points and Arbroath 1,653.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Ayr Utd vs Arbroath
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Ayr Utd
3-4-3- 12Olly Whyte
- 7O. Stirton
- 11R. Taylor
- 6R. Lyon
- 33S. McMann
- 32D. Watret
- 20L. McBeth
- 5K. Holt
- 3L. Dick
- 8L. King
- 1H. Stone
Arbroath
4-2-3-1- 9A. Winter
- 20S. Constable
- 25J. MacIntyre
- 11R. Dow
- 14M. McKenna
- 8R. Flynn
- 26S. Mackie
- 16C. Watson
- 22C. Dewar
- 6T. Beadling
- 1A. McAdams
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 10:12 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ayr Utd have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Arbroath have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Dunfermline(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Livingston(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Stenhousemuir(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Queen's Park(away) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Inverness CT(home) | 1-3 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Morton(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Partick(away) | 0-3 | Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Queen's Park(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Stenhousemuir(away) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Raith Rovers(away) | 0-4 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Ayr Utd wins, 3 draws, 0 Arbroath wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ayr Utd 2-0 Arbroath | Championship |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Ayr Utd 1-0 Arbroath | Championship |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Arbroath 1-1 Ayr Utd | Championship |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Ayr Utd 1-1 Arbroath | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2025 | Arbroath 1-1 Ayr Utd | Championship |
| Jul 19, 2025 | Ayr Utd 4-0 Arbroath | League Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Ayr Utd score 1.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Arbroath score 0.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayr Utd | 1.5 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Arbroath | 0.9 | 1.5 | 3 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ayr Utd sit 7th in Championship (12 points from 10 matches) and Arbroath sit 8th (11 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Ayr Utd | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| 8 | Arbroath | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 11 |
A question about Ayr Utd vs Arbroath?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ayr Utd vs Arbroath?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ayr Utd the favourite at 55%, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Arbroath.
- Where and when is Ayr Utd vs Arbroath played?
- Ayr Utd vs Arbroath is played on January 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Somerset Park, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.