Ayvalikgucu vs Bursa Yıldırımspor: prediction and stats
3. Lig - Group 23. Lig Group 2 - 17Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Hüsnü Uğural Stadyumu, Ayvalık
The Footlab model makes Ayvalikgucu the favourite at 57%, against 25% for a draw and 18% for Bursa Yıldırımspor. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ayvalikgucu vs Bursa Yıldırımspor?
Ayvalikgucu starts as the favourite with a 143-point Elo edge (1,709 vs 1,566).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ayvalikgucu have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Bursa Yıldırımspor have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Yeni Orduspor(home) | 1-2 | 3. Lig - Play-offs |
| May 8, 2026 | Eskişehirspor(away) | 0-0 | 3. Lig - Play-offs |
| May 4, 2026 | Eskişehirspor(home) | 2-0 | 3. Lig - Play-offs |
| Apr 28, 2026 | Karsiyaka(away) | 2-0 | 3. Lig - Play-offs |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Karsiyaka(home) | 0-0 | 3. Lig - Play-offs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2026 | Çorluspor 1947(away) | 1-1 | 3. Lig - Play-offs |
| Apr 23, 2026 | Çorluspor 1947(home) | 2-3 | 3. Lig - Play-offs |
| Apr 18, 2026 | İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik(away) | 1-3 | 3. Lig - Group 1 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Galata(home) | 0-0 | 3. Lig - Group 1 |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Beykoz İshaklıspor(away) | 0-1 | 3. Lig - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Ayvalikgucu win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Bursa Yıldırımspor win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2025 | Bursa Yıldırımspor 1-1 Ayvalikgucu | 3. Lig - Group 3 |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Ayvalikgucu 2-1 Bursa Yıldırımspor | 3. Lig - Group 3 |
Last archived meeting: Bursa Yıldırımspor vs Ayvalikgucu on Mar 16, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Ayvalikgucu score 1.4 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Bursa Yıldırımspor score 1.5 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayvalikgucu | 1.4 | 0.8 | 6 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Bursa Yıldırımspor | 1.5 | 1.4 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ayvalikgucu vs Bursa Yıldırımspor?
- The Footlab model makes Ayvalikgucu the favourite at 57%, against 25% for a draw and 18% for Bursa Yıldırımspor.
- Where and when is Ayvalikgucu vs Bursa Yıldırımspor played?
- Ayvalikgucu vs Bursa Yıldırımspor is played on December 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Hüsnü Uğural Stadyumu, in the 3. Lig - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.