Baku Sportinq vs Karvan: prediction and stats
Birinci DastaRegular Season - 1Kick-off on September 3, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Baku Sportinq the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Karvan. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Baku Sportinq vs Karvan?
A very open match: only 23 Elo points separate Baku Sportinq (1,597) and Karvan (1,574).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Baku Sportinq have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Karvan have 2, 3 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | Şahdağ(away) | 1-1 | Birinci Dasta |
| May 15, 2026 | Zaqatala(home) | 3-0 | Birinci Dasta |
| May 7, 2026 | Cəbrayıl(away) | 3-2 | Birinci Dasta |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Difai Ağsu(home) | 1-1 | Birinci Dasta |
| Apr 23, 2026 | Şimal(away) | 0-1 | Birinci Dasta |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Imisli FK(away) | 1-1 | Premyer Liqa |
| May 15, 2026 | Qabala(home) | 1-2 | Premyer Liqa |
| May 10, 2026 | Turan(away) | 0-1 | Premyer Liqa |
| May 5, 2026 | Neftchi Baku(home) | 0-3 | Premyer Liqa |
| Apr 27, 2026 | Sabah FA(away) | 0-2 | Premyer Liqa |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Baku Sportinq win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Karvan win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2025 | Karvan 1-1 Baku Sportinq | Birinci Dasta |
| Dec 24, 2024 | Baku Sportinq 0-2 Karvan | Birinci Dasta |
| Sep 26, 2024 | Karvan 3-1 Baku Sportinq | Birinci Dasta |
Last archived meeting: Karvan vs Baku Sportinq on Mar 27, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Baku Sportinq score 1.3 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Karvan score 0.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baku Sportinq | 1.3 | 0.8 | 4 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Karvan | 0.7 | 1.7 | 1 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Baku Sportinq | 27 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 40 | 23 | 49 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Baku Sportinq vs Karvan?
- The Footlab model makes Baku Sportinq the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Karvan.
- Where and when is Baku Sportinq vs Karvan played?
- Baku Sportinq vs Karvan is played on September 3, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC), in the Birinci Dasta.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.