MOIK vs Şahdağ: prediction and stats
Birinci DastaRegular Season - 1Kick-off on September 3, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Binə qəsəbə stadionu, Binə
The Footlab model makes Şahdağ the favourite at 37%, against 31% for a draw and 32% for MOIK. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win MOIK vs Şahdağ?
A very open match: only 58 Elo points separate MOIK (1,492) and Şahdağ (1,550).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, MOIK have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Şahdağ have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 21, 2026 | Difai Ağsu(home) | 4-0 | Birinci Dasta |
| May 15, 2026 | Mingəçevir(away) | 1-3 | Birinci Dasta |
| May 6, 2026 | Şimal(away) | 1-1 | Birinci Dasta |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Şahdağ(home) | 0-1 | Birinci Dasta |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Safa Baku(away) | 0-3 | Birinci Dasta |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | Baku Sportinq(home) | 1-1 | Birinci Dasta |
| May 15, 2026 | Səbail(away) | 0-0 | Birinci Dasta |
| May 5, 2026 | Mingəçevir(home) | 2-0 | Birinci Dasta |
| Apr 29, 2026 | MOIK(away) | 1-0 | Birinci Dasta |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Zaqatala(away) | 1-0 | Birinci Dasta |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 MOIK win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Şahdağ win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2026 | MOIK 0-1 Şahdağ | Birinci Dasta |
| Mar 12, 2026 | Şahdağ 1-1 MOIK | Birinci Dasta |
| Sep 11, 2025 | MOIK 1-2 Şahdağ | Birinci Dasta |
| Mar 4, 2017 | Şahdağ 0-0 MOIK | Birinci Dasta |
| Oct 4, 2016 | MOIK 6-0 Şahdağ | Birinci Dasta |
| May 13, 2016 | MOIK 9-1 Şahdağ | Birinci Dasta |
How many goals should we expect?
MOIK score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Şahdağ score 1.4 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOIK | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Şahdağ | 1.4 | 0.5 | 10 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
MOIK sit 6th in Birinci Dasta (33 points from 27 matches) and Şahdağ sit 5th (43 points from 27 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Şahdağ | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 36 | 27 | 43 |
| 6 | MOIK | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 33 | 40 | 33 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for MOIK vs Şahdağ?
- The Footlab model makes Şahdağ the favourite at 37%, against 31% for a draw and 32% for MOIK.
- Where and when is MOIK vs Şahdağ played?
- MOIK vs Şahdağ is played on September 3, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Binə qəsəbə stadionu, in the Birinci Dasta.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.