Şimal vs Cəbrayıl: prediction and stats
Birinci DastaRegular Season - 1Kick-off on September 3, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Şimal the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Cəbrayıl. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Şimal vs Cəbrayıl?
A very open match: only 1 Elo points separate Şimal (1,413) and Cəbrayıl (1,412).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Şimal have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Cəbrayıl have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 27, 2026 | Qaradağ Lökbatan(home) | 2-1 | Birinci Dasta |
| May 21, 2026 | Cəbrayıl(away) | 3-2 | Birinci Dasta |
| May 14, 2026 | Difai Ağsu(home) | 0-1 | Birinci Dasta |
| May 6, 2026 | MOIK(home) | 1-1 | Birinci Dasta |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Safa Baku(away) | 0-0 | Birinci Dasta |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 21, 2026 | Şimal(home) | 2-3 | Birinci Dasta |
| May 15, 2026 | Safa Baku(away) | 0-1 | Birinci Dasta |
| May 7, 2026 | Baku Sportinq(home) | 2-3 | Birinci Dasta |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Səbail(away) | 0-6 | Birinci Dasta |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Mingəçevir(home) | 2-1 | Birinci Dasta |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Şimal win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Cəbrayıl win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 21, 2026 | Cəbrayıl 2-3 Şimal | Birinci Dasta |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Şimal 3-2 Cəbrayıl | Birinci Dasta |
| Nov 20, 2025 | Cəbrayıl 7-0 Şimal | Birinci Dasta |
How many goals should we expect?
Şimal score 1.0 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Cəbrayıl score 1.3 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Şimal | 1.0 | 1.6 | 3 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Cəbrayıl | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Şimal sit 9th in Birinci Dasta (20 points from 27 matches) and Cəbrayıl sit 8th (24 points from 27 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Cəbrayıl | 27 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 40 | 56 | 24 |
| 9 | Şimal | 27 | 5 | 5 | 17 | 23 | 61 | 20 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Şimal vs Cəbrayıl?
- The Footlab model makes Şimal the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Cəbrayıl.
- Where and when is Şimal vs Cəbrayıl played?
- Şimal vs Cəbrayıl is played on September 3, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC), in the Birinci Dasta.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.