Mingəçevir vs Zaqatala: prediction and stats
Birinci DastaRegular Season - 1Kick-off on September 3, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Yaşar Məmmədzadə adına şəhər stadionu, Mingəçevir
The Footlab model makes Mingəçevir the favourite at 77%, against 15% for a draw and 7% for Zaqatala. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mingəçevir vs Zaqatala?
Mingəçevir starts as the favourite with a 159-point Elo edge (1,598 vs 1,438).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mingəçevir have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Zaqatala have 3, 2 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 28, 2026 | Qabala(away) | 0-2 | Premyer Liqa |
| May 22, 2026 | Səbail(home) | 4-1 | Birinci Dasta |
| May 15, 2026 | MOIK(home) | 3-1 | Birinci Dasta |
| May 5, 2026 | Şahdağ(away) | 0-2 | Birinci Dasta |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Zaqatala(home) | 7-1 | Birinci Dasta |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | Safa Baku(home) | 2-1 | Birinci Dasta |
| May 15, 2026 | Baku Sportinq(away) | 0-3 | Birinci Dasta |
| May 6, 2026 | Səbail(home) | 0-3 | Birinci Dasta |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Mingəçevir(away) | 1-7 | Birinci Dasta |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Şahdağ(home) | 0-1 | Birinci Dasta |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Mingəçevir win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Zaqatala win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2026 | Mingəçevir 7-1 Zaqatala | Birinci Dasta |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Mingəçevir 0-0 Zaqatala | Birinci Dasta |
| Oct 23, 2025 | Zaqatala 2-3 Mingəçevir | Birinci Dasta |
| Apr 3, 2025 | Mingəçevir 2-2 Zaqatala | Birinci Dasta |
| Jan 31, 2025 | Zaqatala 2-1 Mingəçevir | Birinci Dasta |
| Oct 30, 2024 | Mingəçevir 1-0 Zaqatala | Cup |
Last archived meeting: Mingəçevir vs Zaqatala on Apr 29, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mingəçevir score 2.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Zaqatala score 0.8 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mingəçevir | 2.1 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Zaqatala | 0.8 | 1.9 | 3 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mingəçevir sit 2nd in Birinci Dasta (51 points from 27 matches) and Zaqatala sit 7th (28 points from 27 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Mingəçevir | 27 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 55 | 27 | 51 |
| 7 | Zaqatala | 27 | 8 | 4 | 15 | 27 | 44 | 28 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mingəçevir vs Zaqatala?
- The Footlab model makes Mingəçevir the favourite at 77%, against 15% for a draw and 7% for Zaqatala.
- Where and when is Mingəçevir vs Zaqatala played?
- Mingəçevir vs Zaqatala is played on September 3, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Yaşar Məmmədzadə adına şəhər stadionu, in the Birinci Dasta.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.