Bala Azul vs Santa Cruz: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Group 13 - 7Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Playa Sol, Puerto de Mazarrón
The Footlab model makes Santa Cruz the favourite at 38%, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Bala Azul. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bala Azul vs Santa Cruz?
A very open match: only 26 Elo points separate Bala Azul (1,733) and Santa Cruz (1,760).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bala Azul have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Santa Cruz have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | UD Caravaca(home) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 2, 2026 | Cieza(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Muleño(home) | 3-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Olímpico Totana(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Cartagena LU II(away) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Cartagena LU II(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 2, 2026 | Real Murcia II(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Yeclano II(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | SFC Minerva(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Atlético Pulpileño(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Bala Azul win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Santa Cruz win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | Bala Azul 0-1 Santa Cruz | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Santa Cruz 1-0 Bala Azul | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
Last archived meeting: Bala Azul vs Santa Cruz on Jan 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Bala Azul score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Santa Cruz score 1.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bala Azul | 1.5 | 1.3 | 6 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Santa Cruz | 1.0 | 1.1 | 6 | 4/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bala Azul sit 11th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 (38 points from 34 matches) and Santa Cruz sit 8th (51 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Santa Cruz | 34 | 15 | 6 | 13 | 37 | 34 | 51 |
| 11 | Bala Azul | 34 | 7 | 17 | 10 | 36 | 36 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bala Azul vs Santa Cruz?
- The Footlab model makes Santa Cruz the favourite at 38%, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Bala Azul.
- Where and when is Bala Azul vs Santa Cruz played?
- Bala Azul vs Santa Cruz is played on October 18, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Playa Sol, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 13.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 18, 2026El PalmarvsUnión Molinense
- Oct 18, 2026Atlético PulpileñovsBalsicas Atlético
- Oct 18, 2026Mazarrón FCvsLos Garres
- Oct 18, 2026Olímpico TotanavsAlgar
- Oct 18, 2026Cartagena LU IIvsSantomera
- Oct 18, 2026AlcantarillavsSFC Minerva
- Oct 18, 2026Águilas IIvsUCAM Murcia II
- Oct 18, 2026San JaviervsBullas Deportivo