Baltika vs Lokomotiv: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC)Rostec Arena, Kaliningrad
The Footlab model makes Baltika the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Lokomotiv. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Baltika vs Lokomotiv?
A very open match: only 5 Elo points separate Baltika (1,976) and Lokomotiv (1,971).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Baltika have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Lokomotiv have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Dinamo Makhachkala(home) | 1-1 | Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Spartak Moscow(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Krylia Sovetov(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Zenit(away) | 0-1 | Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Dynamo(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | CSKA Moscow(away) | 2-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | FC Rostov(away) | 0-1 | Cup |
| Aug 14, 2026 | FC Orenburg(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Akron(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | CSKA Moscow(home) | 1-1 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Baltika win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Lokomotiv win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Lokomotiv 1-0 Baltika | Premier League |
| Oct 23, 2025 | Baltika 1-2 Lokomotiv | Cup |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Baltika 1-1 Lokomotiv | Premier League |
| Aug 13, 2025 | Lokomotiv 2-0 Baltika | Cup |
| Jul 6, 2024 | Lokomotiv 4-1 Baltika | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 25, 2024 | Baltika 1-3 Lokomotiv | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Baltika score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Lokomotiv score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltika | 1.1 | 1.1 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Lokomotiv | 1.1 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Baltika sit 7th in Premier League (6 points from 4 matches) and Lokomotiv sit 14th (3 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Baltika | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Baltika vs Lokomotiv?
- The Footlab model makes Baltika the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Lokomotiv.
- Where and when is Baltika vs Lokomotiv played?
- Baltika vs Lokomotiv is played on September 6, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC) at Rostec Arena, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.