Baranovichi vs Naftan: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 27Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadyen Lyakamatyu, Baranovichi
The Footlab model makes Baranovichi the favourite at 67%, against 19% for a draw and 13% for Naftan. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Baranovichi vs Naftan?
Baranovichi starts as the favourite with a 108-point Elo edge (1,571 vs 1,463).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Baranovichi have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Naftan have 2, 4 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Dinamo Brest(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | ML Vitebsk(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Bate Borisov(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FC Isloch Minsk R.(home) | 3-4 | Premier League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | FC Isloch Minsk R.(away) | 1-1 | Coppa |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Neman(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Gomel(away) | 0-6 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Arsenal(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | FC Dnepr Mogilev(away) | 3-3 | Premier League |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Orsha(away) | 2-2 | Coppa |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Baranovichi win(s), 0 draw(s), 6 Naftan win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 19, 2026 | Naftan 1-0 Baranovichi | Premier League |
| Nov 12, 2022 | Naftan 2-1 Baranovichi | 1. Division |
| Jul 24, 2022 | Baranovichi 0-4 Naftan | 1. Division |
| Sep 19, 2021 | Naftan 5-1 Baranovichi | 1. Division |
| Jul 4, 2021 | Baranovichi 1-6 Naftan | 1. Division |
| Apr 17, 2021 | Naftan 2-0 Baranovichi | 1. Division |
Last archived meeting: Naftan vs Baranovichi on Jun 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Baranovichi score 1.6 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Naftan score 1.1 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baranovichi | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1 | 12/15 | 7/15 |
| Naftan | 1.1 | 2.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Baranovichi sit 12th in Premier League (18 points from 19 matches) and Naftan sit 16th (10 points from 18 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Baranovichi | 19 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 21 | 35 | 18 |
| 16 | Naftan | 18 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 16 | 42 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Baranovichi vs Naftan?
- The Footlab model makes Baranovichi the favourite at 67%, against 19% for a draw and 13% for Naftan.
- Where and when is Baranovichi vs Naftan played?
- Baranovichi vs Naftan is played on October 31, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadyen Lyakamatyu, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.