ML Vitebsk vs FC Minsk: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 27Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadyen DYuSSh-1, Rohachev
The Footlab model makes ML Vitebsk the favourite at 73%, against 17% for a draw and 10% for FC Minsk. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win ML Vitebsk vs FC Minsk?
ML Vitebsk starts as the favourite with a 190-point Elo edge (1,841 vs 1,651).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, ML Vitebsk have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; FC Minsk have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Bate Borisov(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Baranovichi(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Borac Banja Luka(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Borac Banja Luka(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Sutjeska(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | FC Vitebsk(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Neman(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Gomel(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Arsenal(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Belshina(away) | 2-1 | Coppa |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 ML Vitebsk win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 FC Minsk win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 21, 2026 | FC Minsk 2-2 ML Vitebsk | Premier League |
| Oct 19, 2025 | ML Vitebsk 4-1 FC Minsk | Premier League |
| May 25, 2025 | FC Minsk 1-2 ML Vitebsk | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: FC Minsk vs ML Vitebsk on Jun 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
ML Vitebsk score 1.7 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; FC Minsk score 1.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ML Vitebsk | 1.7 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| FC Minsk | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
ML Vitebsk sit 3rd in Premier League (35 points from 16 matches) and FC Minsk sit 7th (28 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | ML Vitebsk | 16 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 32 | 13 | 35 |
| 7 | FC Minsk | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 25 | 24 | 28 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for ML Vitebsk vs FC Minsk?
- The Footlab model makes ML Vitebsk the favourite at 73%, against 17% for a draw and 10% for FC Minsk.
- Where and when is ML Vitebsk vs FC Minsk played?
- ML Vitebsk vs FC Minsk is played on October 31, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadyen DYuSSh-1, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.